Wednesday, May 10

A Question

Welcome those seeking "PoliBlogger" via search engines

Over the last two days a lot of folks have come here via search engines (usually engines other than Yahoo or Google, often Dogpile or others).

At any rate: could someone tell me what has sparked a ton of searches for "Poliblogger"? Was the site mentioned somewhere? Is there just some generic interest in the term?

If you have an answer, could you go here and leave a comment? Thanks.

BTW: my site is to be found at: poliblogger.com

Sunday, April 20

Reminder

: I am now at www.poliblogger.com.

Thursday, April 17

FINALLY!!

PoliBlog now has a new home--it is under construction, but it finally habitable. Come see at: www.poliblogger.com.

MT Help Does anyone who uses Movable Type know how to get the default template to wrap the text to the screen?

Wednesday, April 16

Yes, I'm Still Alive Haven't had much free time the last day or so, and have spent what little I have had trying to get the move to MT going. Am having some minor difficulties, but hopefully will get it squared away tonight.

Tuesday, April 15

Status: Sorry about the dearth of posts the last several days--not only has life been especially busy, but I have been working on making the transition to my own domain and to Movable Type. Like James at OTB, I have tired of fooling with BlogSpot and other issues that the current blog requires me to fool with. Look for an announcement soon on the move. This blog will remain active, however, until the actual move.
Killing the Goose that Lays the Golden Paycheck? I have never fully understood this kind of behavior:
American Airlines Inc.'s flight attendants voted to turn down their financial concession agreements with the Fort Worth-based company, following the approval announced by pilots and transport workers earlier in the day, according a report by Dow Jones Newswires.

The rejection by the Association of Professional Flight Attendants could lead to a bankruptcy filing from the world's largest airline.

If your compnay goes bankrupt, you aren't going to get the deal you want anyway, and indeed, you are likely to lose your job.

Source: DallasNews.com

Money for Moose? While I have mixed feelings on this, I have to admit, there is a point to be made here:
"Even criminals have a right to publish books about their crimes," said Washington College of Law Professor Jamin Raskin, a member of Moose's legal team. "If hitmen for the mob and mass murderers have a First Amendment right to write and publish books about crime, why don't police chiefs?"

Source:Chief Moose appeals ruling on sniper spree book

On to Phase Two. Let the rebuilding begin:Pentagon Asserts the Main Fighting Is Finished in Iraq. " The Pentagon declared today that major combat operations in Iraq were over after United States forces took control of Tikrit, the last bastion of the old government."

Monday, April 14

High Crimes and Misdemeanors? Don't get me wrong, I see no cause to simply head over to Syria and start breaking heads. They may well deserve it, but such a course of action hardly seems prudent, to put it mildly. So what in the world is former Secretary of State Eagleburger ranting about here?
Mr Eagleburger, who accused Syria of having an outrageous record on terror, said an extension of the war was unthinkable.

"You saw the furore that went on before the President got sufficient support to do this," he said. "This is still a democracy and public opinion rules. If George Bush decided he was going to turn troops on Syria now and then Iran he'd be in office about 15 minutes.

"If President Bush were to try it now, even I would feel he should be impeached. You can't get away with that sort off thing in a democracy."

This strikes me as a very odd thing to say--I concur that the political will to do such a thing is not present, and it is pretty much unthinkable that the President would willy-nilly send troops hither and yon. However, impeachable? I think not.

I also recall Mr. Eagleburger was initially quite agains the war with Iraq, although he did eventually change his tune. At any rate, I think Syria can be dealt with via diplomacy at this point, although I wouldn't rule out speacial ops actions if they harbor Iraqi Baathists or are holding Iraqi WMDs.

Source: BUSH'S CALL TO SYRIANS

One Big Happy Family I suspect he knows things of use: Saddam's Half Brother Caught Near Mosul. And family gatherings had to be a hoot:
Hassan had fallen out of favor with Saddam in 1995 and was dismissed as Iraq's interior minister, head of the regime's secret police and other domestic security agencies.

Saddam viewed Hassan as a threat and kept a close watch on him, the official said. Saddam's son Odai is reported to have shot Hassan around the time of his dismissal as interior minister.

Weapons, What Weapons?: Iraqis Point to Possible Weapons Sites "U.S. forces have a list of 2,000 to 3,000 sites in Iraq that need to be checked, and weapons teams are checking up to 20 sites a day, said the war's commander, Gen. Tommy Franks. Iraqis ranging from common citizens to high-ranking officials have suggested other possible hiding places to be searched, Franks and other military officials said."
And the Alternative Would Be? Hundreds protest global lending:
Hundreds of activists peacefully demonstrated yesterday against alleged abuses by large American corporations and international lending agencies, saying their policies are harmful to poor people in Latin America and elsewhere.

[...]

''For the last 50 years we've been attacked by the International Monetary Fund'' because its lending policies funnel money away from social programs in Argentina, said Graciela Monteagudo, a member of the Argentina Autonomist Project.

While I am no giant booster of everything that the IMF and World Bank have done policy-wise during their existence, these kinds of protests beg some key questions, amongst them: if the WB and IMF didn't lend the monies in question, where would these economies be at this point in time? The protestors seems to think that the money would be there no matter what, which is hardly an accurate assessment.

Sunday, April 13

More Evidence: This piece bolsters part of the argument I make in my column: A War Waged With a Sword At His Throat:
Settling nervously into a car, he recounted his story as a soldier in Saddam's Fedayeen.

"I was sure I was going to die," he said.

Struggling against hopelessness and fear, he prepared for battle under the scrutiny of the militia's swordsmen, appointed to decapitate any deserters. Clad in black fatigues, he weathered bombing and boredom. Then he plotted his escape to the safety of relatives on the Iranian border.

"For what was I going to fight?" he asked.

[...]

"I was forced to go. If I refused, I would be considered a traitor and they would execute me," he said.

The article is also interesting as it contains detailed on the Fedayeen Saddam, its origins and operations. It also makes them sound less fearsome and organized than we all thought about two weeks ago.

Saturday, April 12

Blogrolled: Thanks to The American Mind for blogrolling PoliBlog.
Syndication Deal? Not quite, but I do have a new column in the Birmingham News. It is available here
Iranian Overtures? Hmm, and I thought the war was guaranteed to distablize the region and result in the US having worse relations in the region. However, Reuters via Yahoo reports:
Iran's influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has suggested a referendum could be held on resuming ties with the United States, Iran's arch-foe, the official IRNA news agency said on Saturday.

[...]

Rafsanjani's comments seemed to reflect concern in Iran's conservative clerical establishment that the U.S. government, fresh from its success in overthrowing Saddam Hussein in Iraq, could intensify pressure for change in Iran, which is on its list of rogue countries sponsoring terrorism.

"Iranian officials have adopted a softer approach after the fall of Saddam because they are concerned about U.S. intentions," political analyst Saeed Leylaz told Reuters.

Source:Iran's Rafsanjani Suggests U.S. Ties Be Put to Vote

Funny: CBBC Newsround | TV FILM | Tony Blair to star in Simpsons Tony Blair to star in Simpsons
May it be so: "Republican Guard and other Iraqi troops regrouping in Saddam Hussein's hometown, Tikrit, have been battered by U.S. airstrikes and don't present an effective fighting force, U.S. Central Command said Friday."

Source: FOXNews.com

More Education, Saddam Style: " Scores of black leather vests stuffed with explosives and ball-bearings were found by U.S. Marines at a Baghdad school, along with empty hangers hinting that suicide attackers might be wearing them in the chaotic city."

Source: FOXNews.com

Putin Speaks: "The goal of war -- to disarm Iraq -- has not been achieved. ... We must never mix notions. No one liked the Iraqi regime apart from Saddam Hussein, but this is not the point."

I dunno--they looked pretty disarmed to me. However, in all seriousness, it is bit early for anyone to say that the WMD issues has been settled, one way or the other.

Source:CNN

Friday, April 11

Oh, Brother: People can find fault with almost anything. And quite frankly, Saletan's bit of decoding of the President's use of adjectives is a strech, to say the least: The Soft Bigotry of Loose Adulation By William Saletan
The Baath Party and Iraqi Politics: UPI has an interesting news analysis of the Baath party that is worth a read (it isn't very long). Some highlights:
Dictatorship came into full expression in Iraq with the Baathist coup led by Gen. Hassan el-Bakr and Saddam in 1968. During 10 transitional years the modern Iraqi state was steadily transformed from a constitutional monarchy with parliament, political parties and free press from 1930 to 1958, ultimately ending in fascist military rule.

[...]

Baathism was based on the tyrannical Nazi ideology imported in 1947 by Syrian politician Michel Aflaq. When it took power for the second time in Iraq in 1968, the Baath Party sought to eliminate all possible real dangers that threatened the regime. In fact, Saddam pointed the way when he launched his notorious slogan, "We came to stay." Following a bloody campaign that claimed the lives of half the Baath leadership, he placed the party under the control of trusted members of his Tikrit tribe.

Hylarious: "Tourism officials in Hong Kong are regretting running an ad campaign that features the slogan, Hong Kong: It will take your breath away."

Source:
SARS makes Hong Kong regret campaign slogan (Hat Tip: NPR's Morning Edition)

By the Way… Is it just me, or is there something galling about the fact that one has to mail one’s taxes to the IRS “Service Center”? (Yes, I put my taxes in the mail this morning...)
A City a Day: Not bad for a flawed battle plan, eh? Imagine what we could have done if the armchair generals had been allowed to use the good plan.
The northern Iraqi oil city of Mosul fell today without a fight as the last of Saddam Hussein's loyalists vanished during the night.

Source: Capture of Northern City Leaves Tikrit as Last Target for U.S.

Hope and Questions: The following column, My First Day of Freedom, by Iraqi ex-patriot Hussain Abdul-Hussain is worth a read. The first two paragraphs are telling regarding the terror that the regime had instilled:
The downfall of Saddam Hussein's regime, metaphorically incarnate in the toppling of his statue in Firdos Square in Baghdad, filled me with hope.

If the regime were still in power, I would not have had the courage to contribute even these few lines under my name to The New York Times. Although I am a self-exiled Iraqi who has lived in Beirut for the past two decades, I have family and friends in Iraq — and I had every Iraqi's dread that Saddam Hussein's security apparatus could sweep down on them at any moment.

The main thurst of the paragraph contains some distrsut of the US and its ability to do what it says it is going to do. I hope that the administration is able to follow through on its goals and actually create an example for the region. An example not only of good governance, but an example of the US keeping its word so that we might could start building some trust in the region as well.

Thursday, April 10

Surreal: The Baghdad zoo welcomes visitors
Inside the compound was a small, private zoo, where lions, cheetahs, a bear and German shepherds were starving. The soldiers opened their MREs (Meals Ready to Eat) and pushed pound cake through the bars for the bear. They tossed chicken meals to young lions and two lion cubs.
Dean Campaign: RIP. Dean's main issue, being the anti-war candidate means he is already in a precarious position politically. And if he keeps saying things like this, he might as well just quit now:
"We've gotten rid of him — I suppose that's a good thing," Howard Dean, whose campaign has been lifted on his image as the antiwar candidate, said of Mr. Hussein. "But there's going to be a long period when the United States is going to be maintaining Iraq, and that's going to cost this country's taxpayers a lot of money that could be spent on schools and kids."

Source:Democrats Seek to Focus on Domestic Issues

(Hat Tip: The "Grape Vine" on Special Report with Brit Hume)

Fineman on Bush: (With apologies to John Lemon, known anti-Howard Finemanite). Fineman starts his current piece on the President as follows:
The guy doesn’t play small ball; he goes for the Big Inning—and doesn’t waver. Bush is what I’d call a disciplined radical, pursuing sweeping aims with an almost blinkered determination. At least for now—since September 11, 2001—it’s working. A month ago I wrote in this space that never had so much blood and treasure been risked on the hope that people would smile. Well, watch MSNBC. There they are.

And despite the requisite caveats at the end of the piece, it does well-describe a solid, if not remarkable, leader in the current occupant of the White House. Although I am sure that many of the left still see a cowboy with a simpleton's view of the world. It never ceases to amaze me how empirical evidence can be utterly ignored by people who don't want to see the truth.

Indeed, despite the critics (who continue to underestimate him), Bush really is a visionary, and has been remarkably successful at bold, but well crafted, policies.

Anyway, read the piece.

Source:A Big Win for Bush

Hmm, Rings a Bit Hollow, Doesn't it?
French President Jacques Chirac says his country is "rejoicing" in the apparent collapse of the Iraqi dictatorship.

[...]

His foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin, added: "With the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime, a dark page has been turned."

Source:CNN

We Have Humanity in Common: James at OTB pointed out this piece in the Independent by Robert Fisk which mocks the liberation of Iraq. In his rant against the people dancing in the streets in Baghdad, he notes the following:
Forgetting, too, that the "liberators" were a new and alien and all-powerful occupying force with neither culture nor language nor race nor religion to unite them with Iraq.
In other words, because the Americans and British aren't Arabs, or because they might be Christians, or their skin is not the same hue, then that makes the Americans and Iraqis "aliens" to one another. To which I say: nonsense. Our humanity is sufficient to unite us, as is the natural longing of the human spirit for freedom. I think he needs to read my March 23rd piece from the Birmingham News (yes, self-promotion, but heck, its a blog for crying out loud!).

Wednesday, April 9

We Can But Hope: "We discovered that all what the [Iraqi] information minister was saying was all lies," said Ali Hassan, a government employee in Cairo, Egypt. "Now no one believes Al-Jazeera anymore." Source: FOXNews.com

(Hat Tip: K-Lo at The Corner)

Utterly Remarkable: Iran endorses U.S. claim on Iraqi shrines
Iran has made a rare conciliatory gesture towards the United States by endorsing the U.S. statement that coalition forces had not damaged the Shiite religion's two holiest shrines in Iraq.

Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency carried a telephone interview on Tuesday with a prominent Shiite cleric who said the shrines were "untouched."

(Hat Tip: Romulus Remus at Judicious Asininity)

More Rumscraft: From today's briefing, in discussing the humanitarian situation (I have noted some key passages with italics):
Q: Mr. Secretary, you mentioned the momentous pictures and what's going on in Baghdad and parts of Iraq now. You also mentioned the need to set up an interim authority. It seems as the shooting wanes in coming days, that the humanitarian need will grow drastically. When do you plan to send General Garner and his civil affairs team in from Kuwait to begin doing this?

RUMSFELD: I can't see why the humanitarian situation would grow drastically. Quite the contrary. The humanitarian --

Q: (Off mike.)

RUMSFELD: The humanitarian problem occurred under the Saddam Hussein regime for a decade. The circumstance of those people has been terrible. They had been denied all kinds of things because he was unwilling to cooperate with the United Nations.

Now, what's happening now is that humanitarian assistance is coming in. That doesn't mean the situation is worse, it means that it's better. And it is better.

And let me just give you an example. I'll tell you what's going to happen is, the more people who go into that country and see how serious the situation is, the needs of those people, and they're real needs, they're going to report there's a humanitarian crisis, the implication that it just occurred. It didn't just occur. When they say some city's been -- one-third of the city doesn't have sufficient water, compare that with six months ago when maybe half of the city didn't have sufficient water.

Here's just one, in Umm Qasr. It's generally a permissive environment, flourishing somewhat due to the increase of aid and border activity. The population has increased from 15,000 to 40,000, due to the availability of supplies and employment. Water supply is above prewar levels -- combination of U.K. pipeline and trucking. Electricity has been restored by U.K. engineers. Sufficient food is readily available. Medical facilities are sufficient and operating. UNICEF is providing supplies. The port's cleared of mines and open to limited operations. The channel needs dredging. Railway station is cleared by explosive ordnance detachment. Rail line is intact from there to Nasiriyah and they intend to open a line within seven days, which will allow movement of bulk water up the Euphrates Valley.

So, I mean, there's just one city. I could say the same thing on Basra or Nasiriyah. So the assumption in your question is false.

Gots ta luv Rummy.

Gee, What Have They Got to Hide? Iraqi Embassy in Brazil Burns Documents (Hat Tip: Drudge)
Game Really Over A rather remarkable statement from UN envoy Mohammed Aldouri was made today after he noted that the game was "over":
"I have no relationship with Saddam so I can't tell you. I have no communication with Iraq. I am here so I know nothing about what is going on there," Aldouri said.

I find this statement especially remarkable for two reasons: 1) he is clearly no longer afraid of Saddam, or the Baath Party eiltes, and 2) he must believe the regime truly finished to want to distance himself from it.

Source: ITV

Oh, Please: Fred Kaplan's response in Slate to the toppling of the Saddam statue is both counter to most I have read, and overly angst-ridden. (Not to mention, I think, wrong). The Final paragraph:
Is this scene a sad symbol of the Iraqi people's helplessness, after 30 years of brutal dictatorship, to master their own fate? Is this an equally sad symbol of America's inability to liberate without conquering? Will the Iraqis need outside forces to oust not merely Saddam but the figments of his rule? Will the Americans help them without too strong a stench of arrogance?

Excuse me?

Indeed: The US administration on Wednesday warned other countries intent on developing weapons of mass destruction - such as Iran, Syria, and North Korea - to "draw the appropriate lesson from Iraq".

Source: Financial Times

Some People Amaze Me: And Ted Rall tops the list for the moment. Check out the following excerpt from his April 1st column (and no, it isn't an April Fools' joke, although that might be his out...):
Regardless of their political affiliations, patriotic Iraqis prefer to bear the yoke of Saddam's brutal and corrupt dictatorship than to suffer the humiliation of living in a conquered nation, subjugated by Allied military governors and ruled by a Hamid Karzai-style puppet whose strings stretch across the Atlantic. As much as they may loathe Saddam, they're proud of their country, culture and rich history. The thought of infidel troops marching through their cities, past their mosques, patting them down, ordering them around, disgusts them even more than Saddam's torture chambers.

May I say for the record, if a totalitarian dictator ever takes control of the US, I hope some other government comes to our rescue, even if it means that some US citizens will die. I really am utterly amazed that anyone could say that the Iraqi people would prefer the "yoke of Saddam's brutal and corrupt dictatorship" to the US invasion. Utterly breathtaking.

Well, while a correction column ought to be forthcoming, after the events in Baghdad today, I shan't hold my breath...

(Hat Tips to first John Hudock Common Sense and Wonder and then to Right Wing News)

I Thought "Litmus Tests" for Nominees Were Bad Kerry vows court picks to be abortion-rights supporters (Hat Tip: Drudge)
Expect a Lot of This in Days to Come: Iraqis tour half-demolished jail 'of evil' " Iraqis showed journalists a white stone jail where they claim Saddam Hussein's secret police for decades tortured inmates with beatings, mutilations, electric shocks and chemical baths."

(Hat Tip: Drudge)

CP to LOC: Michelle reports that the Command Post will be part of the Library of Congress' project to archive web coverage of the war.
Andrew Sullivan Gets it Right Read this entry at his blog regarding the victory in Baghdad. He is on target.
Ok, It Didn't Take Three Days... But three weeks is pretty darn impressive.
Where's Waldo? I find it rather amusing that (mis)Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf did not make an appearance today, and that the media handlers from the now ex-regime did not show up to mind the foreign press today.
OK, Cute Title, But... While I find the title (Dances With Wolfowitz) of Dowd's column amusing, the argument within the text really misses the boat, as least on two counts:
  • First, like many critics of the war/the administration, she engages in static analysis, which looks only at the death and destruction since March 19th, without taking into consideration the death and destruction that will now be avoided because Saddam and his Baathist thugs are no longer in power.

  • Second, she seems to think that Wolfowitz, Cheney, and company think war is great just for the sake of breaking things and looking tough. Not so. The point of the Hanson quote she sites, and the analysis of James Woolsey she refers to, is not that war is something we go instead of persuason because at times we just feel like it. No, the point is that we engage in war because sometimes persuasion and diplomacy won't work and that to maintain national secuirty, force must be applied.
I would remind Ms. Dowd and all other who decry the evils of warfare--we didn't start this. The Islamoterrorists have been attacking US interests with impunity for over a decade (the Twin Towers twice, the Cole, the Khobar Towers, the embassies in Africa, etc.)--we did not first declare war on them, but they on us.
May it Be So: Signs of Iraqi Leadership Vanish in Baghdad
Residents swarmed out onto the streets today, suddenly sensing that the regime of Saddam Hussein was crumbling, and celebrating the arrival of United States forces.

Throngs of men milled about, looting, blaring horns, dancing and tearing up pictures of Saddam Hussein. Baath party offices were trashed.

Occasional sniper fire continued, but Iraqi resistance largely faded away. The American military hesitated to say the war was over, warning instead that more fighting could break out, both inside and outside Baghdad.

Maybe he is dead, or, at least, as good as dead...

He's Right: Friedman, in his latest column makes the following observations:
It's hard to smile when there's no water. It's hard to applaud when you're frightened. It's hard to say, "Thank you for liberating me," when liberation has meant that looters have ransacked everything from the grain silos to the local school, where they even took away the blackboard.

[...]

America broke Iraq; now America owns Iraq, and it owns the primary responsibility for normalizing it. If the water doesn't flow, if the food doesn't arrive, if the rains don't come and if the sun doesn't shine, it's now America's fault.

Hopefully we are getting to this, and soon. The looting in Basra and the lack of a police authority is another example of this problem. We owe it to the Iraqi people to make sure the food, water, and security flows. Not only do we owe it to them, if we want to foment democracy in Iraq, we need to start instilling trust of us in the population.

Tuesday, April 8

Interesting: It would seem that the public-opinion rift with our allies may not be as bad as some have indicated: 72% believe Canada should have backed war:
A large majority of Canadians -- 72% -- believe Canada should have supported the U.S. at the start of the war against Iraq, according to an exclusive National Post/Global News poll.

The COMPAS survey shows 41% of people believe Canada should have given verbal support to the United States two weeks ago while 31% said the backing should have come in the form of both words and troops.

Still, only a slim majority, 56%, agreed with the U.S. decision to launch an invasion to bring down Saddam Hussein, while 34% opposed the attack.

Amazing: Children were freed from prison today by the U.S. Marines. From the UPI:
The crescendo of welcome increased as an Iraqi woman led the Marines to a children's prison where than more than 160 youngsters were freed.

"It was really something, the children just streamed out of the gates and their parents just started to embrace us," said Lt. Col. Fred Padilla, commander of the 1st Battalion.

And from SpaceWar:

"The children had been imprisoned because they had not joined the youth branch of the Baath party," he alleged. "Some of these kids had been in there for five years."

Sources: United Press International: 5th Marines enter Baghdad suburbs and Jailed Iraqi children run free as marines roll into Baghdad suburbs

(Hat Tip: Rush Limbaugh Show).

Inside the Numbers: Michel Martin (of ABC News, and part of the This Week roundtable) needs a lesson in analyzing data. On Sunday she lamented the high-percentage of friendly fire casualties in the current war, and noted similar numbers from the first Gulf War. The number cited was something like 25% deaths from friendly fire. I do not know if that number is accurate, although it sounds about right based on the overall numbers which have been reported.

The problem, of course, is that the reason that in prior wars that friendly fire deaths were a lower percentage of conflict-related deaths is because the absolute numbers of deaths due to the enemy were so high. The ratio of troops on the ground to battle deaths in this war has got to be one of the lowest in history. Further, there is simply a small “N” (i.e., sample size) problem here. With (as of the last report I heard) less than 100 deaths, any category in that number may seem over-represented, due to the low number of absolute deaths reported. For example, let’s say that 30% of the deaths were from grenades, where in the past the number of grenade-related deaths was only 10%. That doesn’t mean that we have become three-times more vulnerable to grenades (indeed, it could many things, or just be a statistical anomaly). Similarly, a high percentage of friendly fire deaths out of a relatively small number of overall deaths, means nothing.

I am not making light of the deaths in question, just making light of Ms. Martin’s analytical skills in this case. It is as if in the face of overwhelming success in the campaign, she had to find something negative to say.

Apple Fritters: Jack Shafer at Slate excoriates the war "analysis" of NYT's R. W. "Johnny" Apple, Jr. Read it here.
CNN: Behind the Curve: Did anyone else notice that last night when the news was breaking on Fox and MSNBC concerning the new bombing of Saddam and friends, that CNN was airing a series of commercials and seemed utterly out of synch? The best they could do at first was show pictures of Saddam, Uday and Qusay (while the other two networks had some video (some of which turned out to be the wrong video), and experts in the studio and reporters at various locations of relevance), and talk to their reporter in Belfast (and it was over the phone), rather than at the Pentagon, etc. Further, they seemed to press LAT’s report Robin Wright into service on the fly (she had been Larry King’s guest in the previous hour)—one got the impression that she was leaving the building and they grabbed her in the hall and stuck her back on TV.

At any rate, it was interesting that they seemed to be caught out of the loop.

It's Called Leadership Blair's approval rating on rise. His numbers are now about where they were last summer, pre-Iraq. It goes to show that sometimes one has to lead and let public opinion follow.

Monday, April 7

What? Is He Supposed to Leave His Gun at Home? Pistol-Packing Gen. Franks Visits Troops in Iraq
Understatement of the Day: "we do know [Saddam] no longer runs much of Iraq" (SecDef Rumsfeld).

Source: AP/Yahoo!

Amusing: Is war a joke to late-night comedians?
"But you know there's some confusion now whether Saddam Hussein is actually alive or dead," David Letterman joked on CBS' "The Late Show." "They had videotape on Iraqi television earlier today, and it's so confusing. It's Saddam Hussein ... and he's speaking at his own funeral."

[...]

"Today the U.S. Army kicked Geraldo Rivera out of Iraq," Craig Kilborn said on CBS' "The Late Late Show." "Why didn't someone tell us you can kick out Geraldo?"

[...]

"There was another war-related casualty today," Leno joked in Thursday's broadcast. "The French were injured when they tried to jump on our bandwagon."

I Love It! ABC News Radio is reporting that some of our troops camped out in one of Saddam's palaces last night.
I Know I Shouldn't Find This Funny... And in real terms, I don;t really, but still... Convoy of Russians Attacked in Baghdad
Change on the Ground: U.S. Airlifts Iraqi Exile Force For Duties Near Nasiriyah "In a surprise move, the United States has begun airlifting hundreds of members of an Iraqi exile group into southern Iraq, vanguard elements of what a high-ranking Pentagon officer said would form the basis of a new Iraqi army."
Hmm, More Delusional Statements? Annan: U.N. to Play Major Role in Rebuilding Iraq
"I do expect the U.N. to play an important role, and the U.N. has had good experience in this area," Annan told reporters ahead of a meeting of the U.N. Security Council that he had called to discuss the issue.
Whaddaya Know, Part II: U.S. Finds Drums That May Contain Chemical Arms
American soldiers in Iraq's Karbala area, raiding an empty training camp for Palestinians and others seeking to join Iraqis in the war, have discovered several large oil drums that may contain chemical weapons, officers said today.

Col. Tim Madere, the V Corps chemical officer, said that a preliminary test by a military chemical unit at the scene, indicated the presence of nerve gas, which is potentially lethal, as well as mustard gas. But Colonel Madere said he would await final judgment until a squad of the 51st Chemical Company, which was rushed to the scene, took samples and returned them to an American base in Iraq where more conclusive tests can be made.

Blix had better hurry, the soldiers are doing his work for him...

Delusional Statements of the Day:
Information Minister Mohammad Saeed al-Sahhaf insisted that there was "no presence of the American villains in the city of Baghdad at all. They tried to come in from Dora on a small number of tanks and personnel carriers, but we treated this problem by capturing most of them and killing the rest."

[...]

Al-Sahhaf told reporters in Baghdad that the U.S. forces "learned a lesson last night they will never forget. We slaughtered them and will continue to slaughter them."

Source: U.S. forces 'destroyed' in Baghdad

Thanks to Dain Brammage of My Brain Hurts! for blogrolling PoliBlog!

Sunday, April 6

Multi-Layer Irony: Does anyone else find this as amusing as I do? Iraqi Government Announces Travel Ban in Baghdad: "Iraqi television says authorities will impose a travel ban at the Baghdad city limits starting Sunday night."
Not Good: 'Friendly fire' hits Kurdish convoy. We are almost more dangerous to ourselves at times than are the Iraqis.
It Couldn't Happen to a Nicer Guy: "On Saturday, U.S.-led coalition aircraft destroyed the home of Gen. Ali Hassan al-Majeed, known as "Chemical Ali," one of Saddam's cousins." Source: CNN.com - British battle groups push toward central Basra

Saturday, April 5

Plain Silly: Not to mention helping to further stereotypes of the south: Lincoln Statue Heightens Old Pains
"Hitler/Paris 1940. Lincoln/Richmond 1865. Any questions?" one sign read. Another, held by a young boy, read: "Lincoln wasn't worth a cent -- then or now." And a wanted poster with Lincoln's face read: "WANTED: For War Crimes."

Several hours before the afternoon dedication, about 100 members of the Sons of Confederate Veterans and their families gathered at the nearby grave of Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederacy, to protest the Lincoln statue.

"As long as I'm commander in chief, we will never accept it," vowed Ron Wilson, national commander of the group. "We are going to fight these people everywhere they raise their head."

Truer than he knows: Iraqi Information Minister Sahaf reads Saddam message: "The criminals will be humiliated ... "

Source: Reuters

All the News that's Fit to Correct: From the "Correction" Section of the NYT's
Corrections: A front-page news analysis article on Sunday about the political perils faced by President Bush over the war with Iraq misattributed a comment about Saddam Hussein's government being "a house of cards." While some American officials had used the phrase to predict a shorter conflict and a quick collapse of the Iraqi leadership, Vice President Dick Cheney was not among them.

A rather intriguing error and correction, given that all last weekend, and talking heads all week, have attributed that quote to Cheney as though it was proof-positive that the administration's plan was flawed. Also, this indicates some pretty sloppy research by someone at the Times.

(Hat tip to Bill Kristol, appearing on Fox News Network.)

Evil. The evidence continues to mount that this regime was exactly what the Bush administration described it as: evil. The moral element of this war is clear to me, and those who attempt any form of moral equivalency between the coalition forces and the Iraqis is wearing willful blinders.
Hundreds of bundles of bone in strips of military uniform have been found by British soldiers at an abandoned Iraqi military base on the outskirts of the town of al-Zubayr.

[...]

Outside, in a courtyard, a brick wall riddled with bullets stands behind a foot-high tiled platform, with a drainage ditch running in-between.

It looks like "a purpose-built shooting gallery" says one British soldier.

Next to the courtyard, a building contains what look like cells with metal hooks hanging from racks on the ceiling - and a picture of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein.

Source: BBC NEWS | UK | 'These are all executions'

The Iraqi Version of "No Child Left Behind"
U.S. Marines were digging up a suspected chemical weapons hiding place in the courtyard of an Iraqi school southeast of Baghdad on Saturday.

The Marines said that a man who described himself as a former member of the Iraqi special forces told them that groups of Iraqi men had knocked down a wall of the girls' school two months ago, hidden something in the courtyard and then concreted it over again during the course of three nights.

Source: Reuters AlertNet - US Marines digging up suspected chemical arms site
More on Saddam: Watching that footage of "Saddam" in the streets yesterday reminds me of going to theme parks or events for kids where Mickey Mouse (or Sir Topham Hat--I took my two eldest boys to Thomas the Tank Engine yesterday) comes out for an appearance and everyone mobs him, takes pictures, shakes his hand, etc. The scene yesterday was like some perverse, Dante-esque theme park, and the stuffed Saddam mascot came out to greet the crowd.
Surprising/Intriguing: I didn't expect this move, but, I guess, neither did the Iraqis. I wonder if Saddam and his doppelganger buddies are smiling now?
An armored force of 50 American tanks and other vehicles wheeled suddenly into the center of Baghdad today, taking the city’s defenders by surprise and triggering a rolling firefight along boulevards lined with some people waving and others shooting.

[...]

"We do have troops in the city of Baghdad,'' Capt. Frank Thorp told reporters, "They're in the middle of the city.''

Source: Armored Force Comes Under Fire During Three-Hour Incursion

Delusional? If the happy, laughing man on TV yesterday was Saddam--he is either honestly believing his own disinformation, not being told the truth, or is utterly delusional. I still think something is odd about the whole thing. Why would he risk going into public like that? And what was the deal with the rather small crowd?

Source: Iraqi TV Presents a Relaxed Hussein

Getting All the Plum Jobs Now: First the Daily Mirror, then Greek TV, now: Peter Arnett now reporting for Arab channel Al-Arabiya. I am sure he will redeem himself with so many opportunities to demonstrate his journalistic skills.

Friday, April 4

As John Lemon Predicted: In feedback yesterday, JL called it: Hollywood eyes Jessica Lynch
More Progress: Elite Iraqi Guard Division Defeated -US Marines "U.S. Marines said Friday that the Nida division of the Iraqi Republican Guard had been defeated by U.S.-led forces pushing toward Baghdad from the southeast."

Thursday, April 3

More Warm Welcomes. Despite some of the doom and gloom, it does appear that there are a good number of common Iraqis who are glad we are there. I still think that once the country is secured, and Saddam and his Baathist buddies are gone, the overwhelming majority of the country will be thankful for their liberation.
In the giddy spirit of the day, nothing could quite top the wish list bellowed out by one man in the throng of people greeting American troops from the 101st Airborne Division who marched into town today.

What, the man was asked, did he hope to see now that the Baath Party had been driven from power in his town? What would the Americans bring?

"Democracy," the man said, his voice rising to lift each word to greater prominence. "Whiskey. And sexy!"

[...]

Again and again, people pointed to the sky, tilted their heads back and pointed to their open mouths. A boy, age about 6 or 7, approached an American reporter and said the two words that were uttered over and over: "America. Good." Then he kissed the reporter on the cheek, shook his hand and pointed to the sky, pleading for water.

The Shiites seemed mildly to wildly grateful for the presence of the Americans, but were curious about what it will amount to.

And we are going to have to stay long enough to get things moving in the right direction. I think that is best not only from a moral perspective (if we are going to blow everything up, we ought help pick up), and for our national security--a stable, secular, democratic Iraq is the best thing that could happen to us in the region. And I pray we don't let the UN or the Euroweenies mess things up.

Source: Exuberant Crowd's Most Urgent Request: Water

Insde the NYT's Editorial Page:
Lawrence Eagleburger, secretary of state during the first Bush administration, gave some fascinating insight into the process Wednesday night on the Fox News show Hannity & Colmes. Responding to a Hannity query, Eagleburger said: "About ten days ago, I was approached from the New York Times to write an op-ed piece. To make it very short, when I talked to them about it, I was told what we want is criticism of the administration...Needless to say, I did not write the op-ed piece."

Now, I read the Times, but it is always useful to know where editorial page editors are coming from (not that we couldn't tell...)

Source: The Times Indecent Proposal -- April 3, 2003

Progress! ABC radio is reporting that the US military has taken the Saddam International Airport, and that resistance was light. Further, there have been reports of Iraqi civilians cheering on the US troops. This comports with the mass surrenders and bus caravans that I reported earlier today.
OTB Move: James has moved Outside the Beltway off of BlogSpot onto its own domain. Give the new site a look.
More Encouraging News: U.S. - Najaf Cleric Urges Iraqis Not to Hinder Troops Thursday, Apr 03, 2003; 8:06 AM
AS SAYLIYA CAMP, Qatar - A U.S. commander in the Gulf said on Thursday that a prominent Shi'ite Muslim cleric in the holy city of Najaf had issued an edict urging Iraqis to remain calm and not to hinder U.S. invading forces. "A prominent cleric, Grand Ayatollah Sistani, who had been placed under house arrest by the regime for a considerable period of time, issued a fatwa," Brigadier General Vincent Brooks told a news conference in Qatar.

"And it was done this morning, instructing the population to remain calm and to not interfere with coalition actions. We believe this is a very significant turning point and another indicator that the Iraqi regime is approaching its end."

A Reuters correspondent in Baghdad just one week ago saw a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani still pinned to the door of a main Shi'ite mosque in the capital saying Iraqis would "stand together against any invasion."

Source: Dispatches

The Money Primary: According to WaPo John Edwards is the early leader, by about $400k over John Kerry (who isn't helping himself calling for "regime change" in DC and playing the UN card--that might all fly in Paris, but not so much 'round here these days). The article correctly notes that "frontrunner" status (which Kerry covets) is going to be determined at this point largely by money.

Of course, I still maintain that any Democrat is going to have an uphill battle against Bush, unless the war effort takes a disastrous turn, which seems unlikely to me.

And, indeed:

But another Democratic strategist noted that Dean trails Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman and probably Gephardt. "Dean doesn't get extra points [merely] because he said he was going to raise $1.5 million and got $2.6 million," the strategist said. "He's still behind. . . . You can't buy ads with 'beating expectations.' "
Eye-Witness to the Surrenders: ABCNEWS.com : ABCNEWS Journalists Report From Gulf: Mike Cerre, with the 1st Marine Division north of the Tigris river 11:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Iraq
At dawn, buses filled with military-age men coming from Baghdad started approaching our lines asking to surrender. It's been going on for the past two hours now. It started with a bus and a van. There's now several buses. As I look down the road behind me, people are streaming out of the city just to our north and approaching our lines, asking to surrender.

Most are military-age young men who say they are civilians but you can see they have military boots. Some of them have military belts and they all have short haircuts, presuming that they are military who've been fleeing Baghdad. We were able to talk to one of the translators who said they left Baghdad last night. They got weekend passes from their officers who knew they would probably be deserting.

They're trying to make it to American lines where they feel they are safer, because if they stop at one of these towns, they'll be pressed back into service by the local political parties. The Marines are trying to process as many as they possibly can.

Another Hat Tip to Blogs of War

But, I Thought They All Hated Us: Report: Buses of Iraqis Fleeing Baghdad
Iraqi deserters and civilians are flooding out of Baghdad by the busload on Thursday and surrendering to U.S. forces advancing on the Iraqi capital, said a U.S. television reporter traveling with Marines.

Hat Tip to: Blogs of War

The Iraqi Regime: Lovers of Truth: Why al-Jazeera's man in Baghdad was kicked out
Al-Jazeera reporter Tayseer Allouni may have been ordered out of Baghdad by the Iraqi government because he tried to interview people without an official minder present, according to a senior executive at the Arabic TV news channel.

[...]

[T]he chief of al-Jazeera's Washington bureau, Hafez al-Mirazi, told CNN Allouni had angered Iraqi information ministry officials when he tried to conduct interviews without a government minder present.

Just Imagine What Special Forces Can Do Private First Class Lynch (a nineteen year-old female supply clerk) put up a fight before she was captured:
Rescued U.S. soldier Jessica Lynch shot several Iraqi soldiers prior to her capture, firing her weapon until she ran out of ammunition, The Washington Post reported on Thursday, citing U.S. officials.
The 19-year-old private first class continued firing at the Iraqis even after she sustained multiple gunshot wounds and watched several other soldiers in her unit die around her, one official told the newspaper.



Source: (Reuters) Report: Captured Woman Put Up Fierce Fight
Weighing Bad News: I was struck last night, while listening to the news, of the substantial difference between bad news for the Iraqi military and bad news for coalition forces. Yesterday, bad news for the Iraqis was that two divisions of the Republican Guard were degraded to the point that had lost most, if not all, of their military significance. Bad news for the US forces around Baghdad was the loss of a Blackhawk and and an F-18.

In no way do I mean to diminish the loss of those who died in the helicopter crash, nor the importance of the missing Navy pilot, but in macro terms, this comparison is a glaring example of the lop-sideness of this war.

Too Much Real Estate: You know you have too many palaces when describing one as "the one by the airport" isn't specific enough:

Lead units of the multi-pronged U.S. assault force were about four miles from the edge of Baghdad, and some soldiers made a brief foray into a presidential palace near Saddam International Airport.

Navy Capt. Frank Thorp, a U.S. Central Command spokesman, did not specify which of two palaces near the airport was entered.

Source: AP/Yahoo

Progress: U.S. Forces Enter Presidential Palace. And may it be so: "A U.S. spokesman said Iraqi forces appeared on the verge of collapse."
Making our Move: (Reuters) U.S. Infantry Vanguard 6 Miles from S. Baghdad "Advance armored units of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division were just six miles from the southern edge of Baghdad on Thursday, U.S. military sources in the area told Reuters correspondent Luke Baker."

Wednesday, April 2

The 24-7 Effect: It is interesting to see how the constant coverage, especially given the live and direct nature of it, has distorted time. One would think (and indeed, it does kind of feel this way) that the war had been going on for months, not two weeks (indeed, as I write this we are still an hour shy of the two-week mark). The examples of this are rampant in the press. The headlines over the weekend, for example, that made comparisons to the quagmire of Vietnam, are illustrative. How can a quagmire develop in 10 days?

A key example tonight was Howard Fineman reporting on MSNBC about the president and how "burdened" (referencing this USA Today story) and “isolated” he has been, and talking about how the President was going to have to get out and be seen. Now, I know for a fact that the President gave a public speech last Wednesday, and I thought made at least one other public appearance since. But even if the last time was the Florida speech, it has only been a week! How can one be "isolated" after a week? The time dilation and distortion here is really remarkable.

Thanks to The Invisible Hand for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Indeed: Mort Zuckerman column in US News states, quite correctly, the following:
Sooner, rather than later, the treacherous will get what they deserve. So it must be for the others who have betrayed our restraint and practiced a lethal deceit: What Saddam's thugs are doing on the field of battle is what France, under the leadership of President Chirac, did on the field of diplomacy.

The whole thing in worth a read. It is noteworthy its praise for both President Bush and Prime Minister Blair.

Who do you tust? Hmm, while US forces claim Iraqi rout, "Iraq's Information Minister Mohammed Saeed Sahaf has said the progress which US troops claimed to be making was erroneous." It is a tough call as to whom I should listen...

Tuesday, April 1

More Fun From France: One in three French backs Saddam
(Hat tip to Drudge)
Today's DoD News Briefing had an interesting response from General Myers. It is a bit lengthy, but worth the read, given all the criticism that has been leveled at the SecDef and the war plan in general.
Q: Secretary, I want to ask you once again about criticism from current and former officers about the flow of forces to the region and also whether there are sufficient forces in Iraq. Someone said that there should have been at least two heavy divisions before you started to fight, and there are others who criticize you for delaying signing deployment orders -- they point to the 3rd Armored Cav[alry] Regiment -- and also delaying calling up Guard and Reserve forces, that that added to some of the problems we're seeing now with lack of forces on the ground. And there are those that say that you're too enamored with air power over ground forces. I wonder if you could just comment on --

Rumsfeld: Well, why don't I --

Myers: Can I comment?

Rumsfeld: (Laughs.) Sure.

Myers: I would love to comment. My view of those reports -- and since I don't know who you're quoting, who the individuals are -- is that they're bogus. There is -- I don't know how they get started, and I don't know how they've been perpetuated, but it's not been by responsible members of the team that put this all together. They either weren't there, or they don't know, or they're working another agenda , and I don't know what that agenda might be. It is not helpful to have those kind of comments come out when we've got troops in combat, because first of all, they're false, they're absolutely wrong, they bear no resemblance to the truth, and it's just -- it's just -- harmful to our troops that are out there fighting very bravely, very courageously.

I've been in this process every step of the way as well. There is not one thing that General Franks has asked for that he hasn't gotten on the time line that we could get it to him. And it wasn't because of a late finding. It might be because we didn't have a, you know, a ship or something. But, I mean, it's not -- it's been for mechanical reasons, not because of administrative reasons, I can guarantee you that. Every member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff signed up to this plan and the way it was executed from the first day, and they'll be signed up to the last day, because we still think it's a good plan. Every member of General Franks' component commanders signed up to this plan as it was changed over time, and as it finally came down to be the one we went to war with. And they all stood up, and they gave a thumbs up to the plan.

So there may be others that have other ideas of how we should have done it. And I -- and, you know, God bless them, that's a great sport here inside the beltway. And I suppose if I -- when I retire, I'll probably have my comments, too: Gee, they ought to have more air power. (Laughter.) I wish the secretary would say we ought to be more air power-centric, perhaps. But I've never heard him say that --

Q: (Off mike.)

Myers: No. He hasn't said it. And that's not what he -- that's not -- I'm not going to speak for the secretary, but that's not the kind of comments that he's been making in this whole process. So that's -- it's been interesting, but it's not very useful to this discussion.

You know, we went in there with some very sophisticated objectives. We had diplomacy underway at the United Nations. We wanted to deploy a sufficient force, but not the kind of force that would make it look like diplomacy didn't have a chance to work. So we had to work that piece. General Franks -- and for the benefit of our troops -- wanted to protect tactical surprise. How do you protect tactical surprise when you have 250,000 troops surrounding Iraq on D-day? How do you do that? Well, you do it by the method he did it: by having the types of forces -- you do it by starting the ground war first, air war second. Do you think there was tactical surprise? I think there was. Do we have the oil fields in the south? About 60 percent of the oil wealth has been preserved for the Iraqi people. You bet. Have we had a Scud fired against Jordan or Israel yet? No. Why? Because we went in very early, even before the ground war, to secure those places. Do we have humanitarian supplies flowing into Umm Qasr now? Yes. Why? Because we put the ground forces in there early. Were we 200 miles inside Iraq in 36 hours? Yes.

[...]

Myers: General Franks is not criticizing the plan and he's the one that gets the rows for executing it. And I would only say this: that there is -- there could be a big difference in perceptions. And I'll go from the field -- and none of the perceptions are wrong, but it was like this seminar I was in at Harvard after the Gulf War. The comment was thrown out at this seminar, "Gee, the Army division commanders weren't happy with the air support they got." And I was surprised. So I called my good friend General -- at the break. I went out, put my quarter in the machine, called General Horner. And he was down -- I think commander of Space Command. I said, "General Horner, why would they say this?"

Rumsfeld: I think also it's useful to put it into some historical perspective. I don't think there's ever been a war where there haven't been people opining about this or speculating about that or second-guessing on something else. As I say, we're 10 or 11 days into this, and these things have kind of a rhythm to them, and right now we're hearing all of the complaints and concerns and questions. One of the ways you can get a sense of how knowledgeable people are is if somebody says that they were sent with half of their forces, which I read in one paper -- fact is, that's just not true. So if the person believes that, you can think, gosh, if he thinks he was sent with half his forces -- there hasn't been delays in any major thing.

Before this started, the president sat down in a secure video with General Franks and each of the component commanders before he made a decision to go forward, and he asked them a couple of questions. He said, "is this war plan a good one and will it win?" And each single person, every component commander, they said directly to the president of the United States on secure video, "absolutely."

Q: Well was --

Rumsfeld: Shh. Just listen. (Laughter.)

Then he said, "Do you have everything you need?" Simple question. These are adults. They're all four-stars. And they sat there, and they looked at the president in the eye and said "absolutely, we've got everything we need."

Now, is it, as General Myers says, perfectly possible that some person five layers down is short a meal for a day, or he his communications mixed up with somebody else's? You bet. This is an enormous process. There's something like -- what? -- 260,000 -- 300,000 people involved in this activity, and it is a monstrous task that they've performed, and they've done it brilliantly.

Myers' willingness (and zeal, I might add, as I heard this live) to answer the question and defend Rumsfeld was rather striking. Further, the litany of successes that he details is noteworthy, as are the remarks about diplomacy and the build-up.

Democrat & Chronicle: Moore explains Oscar speech. And this kind of talk, strikes me as either fantasy, or a total non sequitur: “Saddam Hussein is a brutal dictator,” he added, “and I hope he’s removed as soon as possible. But nonviolently.” (As James at OTB notes, it is like being anti-abortion, but pro-choice).

And, boy, I can hardly wait:

His next project is guaranteed to be controversial. “I’m making a film called Fahrenheit 911, the temperature at which freedom burns. It’ll be about how Bush is using 9/11 and those 3,000 lost lives as an excuse to move along his own conservative agenda.”

For example?

Intriguing: Sarin Gas Documents Seized in Iraq
Special Forces teams operating in northern Iraq have seized manuals on the production of deadly poison gases, chemical masks and other documentation in raids on the camps of Islamic militants with alleged links to the al Qaeda terror organization.

And from the same story:

As fighting raged from Basra to Baghdad, members of the 101st Airborne Division involved in street clashes in the holy Iraqi city of Najaf were given new rules of engagement, ABCNEWS has learned.

A high-ranking military source told ABCNEWS that they were now permitted to fire upon all buildings, including residences and buildings of religious or historical value.

The change in orders came about after U.S. military officials say they learned that Iraqi forces were using religious landmarks as shields and hiding anti-aircraft artillery next to mosques.

Indeed: "That Arnett took his star turn on Iraqi state television and spoke seriously to a uniformed member of the Iraqi military indicates that he possesses the credulousness of a child, not the judgment of a seasoned reporter."

The piece itself is worth a read, and probably ought to be entitled "Why Arnett Shouldn't Have Been Hired in the First Place," rather than "Sacking Arnett for the Wrong Reason"

War Summary

Noteworthy stuff:

  • The Republican Guard's Medina division, massed south of Baghdad, and the Hammurabi division, north of the city, have been targeted by "tremendous sorties," McChrystal said at a Pentagon briefing. He said two other divisions have also been targeted, and that initial assessments show that the Medina division's strength might have been cut in half.

  • The Kurdish militia, the Peshmerga, said about 1,000 Iraqi soldiers have surrendered along the northern front line separating Kurdish areas from those controlled by the Iraqi regime.

  • Elements of the U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division seized an airfield on the outskirts of Najaf. The strip will be used by military transport planes once it is cleared of mines, military officials said.

  • Fighting also continued around Nasiriya and Samawa, where U.S. officials said 50 Iraqi soldiers and 100 members of a paramilitary group were captured.

  • British forces said they've secured the western part of Basra, Iraq's second-largest city

  • Clean water began flowing Monday from Kuwait to the southern Iraqi port city of Umm Qasr through a pipeline that will provide about 600,000 gallons of fresh water a day, Brooks said. Iraqi forces had cut off water supplies to the city.

Source:CNN

Monday, March 31

That didn't take long: Britain's Mirror Hires Fired Veteran Arnett. Of course it is something of a step down.
Remarkable: 8,700 Bombs, Missiles Launched at Iraq, U.S.says. And, I should think: "We are seeing significant degradation of those forces"
Musings. It just occurred to me: what if instead of hearing every night about how the best case scenario did not occur (i.e., the cakewalk thesis didn't play out), we heard about how the worst case scenario did not occur? I know that there has been some reference to the lack of an attack on Israel, the lack of a flood of refugees, etc. Still, it is most remarkable the degree to which many in the press seem most eager to talk about the administration having to rethink its plan (which, actually, I think is an incorrect characterization--I suspect the administration did plan for the failure of the cakewalk. Indeed, the ignorance of many in the press is staggering--they seem to actually think that the US military goes into a place with only one plan, and if that fails they start from scratch...), rather than talk about all that has gone right.
John Leo's US News column is worth a looksee. A taste: "The Hitlerization of Bush is particularly outlandish since there already is a rather obvious Hitler figure in this drama." Indeed.
Fighting and Liberation: Fareed Zakaria's column in Newsweek is worth a read. His tone is a bit more critical than I would prefer, but the basics are on target.

And, I think this is essentially correct:

Many Iraqis will celebrate Saddam’s fall. Others will be angered by a foreign invasion. But most will be on guard to see what happens after the war. That is when America will vindicate itself, if it truly helps to build a new Iraq. After all, the Germans and the Japanese did not cheer in 1945 but they were grateful by 1955. America will win the Iraqis over not by what it does in the next five weeks but rather in the next five years.

Although I do think that ultimately there is going to be some serious jubilation when Saddam is utterly toppled. Still, the true liberalization of Iraq is going to take time, and I hope that we are adequately committed to that process. Not only is it the right thing to do, it is also the path that will lead to more security for the United States.

"Believe it or not, we're winning" A good piece by Mark Steyn. And, indeed:
An innovative war is going very well, and none of the ''setbacks'' are unexpected, despite the Saddamites' determination in their death throes to plumb new depths in depravity. The allied loss of life is wretched for the families involved but strategically significant only as a historically unprecedented low: Just for the record, there have been 10 American combat deaths to approximately 1,000 Iraqi combat deaths, and there is no reason to believe that ratio will change unless Saddam's conscripts start surrendering faster. It was Stalin who said cynically that one death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic. The fact that CNN was able to lapse into its default individual-tragedy mode with soft-focus profiles of each American POW is, in fact, confirmation of how badly the Baathists are doing.

He makes several good point--give it a read.

More Blogs in the news: Bloggers’ Delight
Bad Day in General for "Journalists":
The U.S. military is expelling Fox News Channel's unfortunate hire Geraldo Rivera from the country, CNN reported today.

CNN quotes U.S. military officials as saying Geraldo violated "the cardinal rule of war reporting Monday by giving away crucial details of future military operations during a live broadcast." It gave no further information.

Source.

Hook'Em Yet Again!: Texas is finally in the Final Four for the first time since 1947.
In the "He'll Never Learn" Category (not to mention probably never get another serious job in US): NBC Fires Arnett After Iraq TV Interview. Between his escapades in the first Gulf War, anf then making stuff up for CNN a few years later, and now this, one guesses he is truly done with major networks in the US.

And I would not wear this as a badge of honor:

He said the Iraqis allowed him to stay in Baghdad because they respect him.

"The Iraqis have let me stay because they see me as a fellow warrior," Arnett said. "They know I might not agree with them, but I've got their respect."

Sunday, March 30

BTW, John Lemon is back from vacation.
It strikes me as odd that in every picture of Saddam since the war started, there is always some kind of curtain behind him (although the curtain itself varies) and he is always sitting. Plus, why haven't they just issued a video that is 100% conclusive? Most strange.

Fox had a picture that had Saddam's bodyguard in it, but no Saddam. Apparently the bodyguard has never been photgraphed without Saddam present in 15 years. Also strange, but I have not had time to see if there is further news or analysis of this situation.

So, I wonder how many people still think that there is no way, no how, that secular Saddam would ever work with Islamic fundamentalist terrorists.

Saturday, March 29

Encouraging:
Iraqi civilians were reported to be emerging from Basra yesterday to pass critical intelligence information to British-led forces to aid attacks against Saddam Hussein's forces within their own city.

British intelligence officers said there had been a steady stream of information coming from the population in Basra, Iraq's second largest city, about the movements and activities of paramilitaries loyal to Saddam.

Source: The Telegraph (Hat Tip to Analyst at AcePilots.com )

As usual, Friedman's latest column is worth a read. His argument that NATO will not only survive the Iraq war, but thrive in the future as a US-led alliance in the war against terror is most intriguing. The current situation in Afghanistan vis-à-vis NATO was unknown to me, and does lend some credence to his argument.

Still, we shall see.

Somewhat amusing: Top Stories Photos
Desperation Tactics: This--Iraq Says Suicide Strikes Are 'Policy'--is not the move of a military that believes it can win, but rather a move of desperation to attack the coalition's resolve. For a regime that so many claimed did not have any usage for terrorism, it is remarkable to degree to which all the regime has are terrorist tactics. I still believe that many of the mainline military would have quit if it weren't for the terror being applied by the regime to its own citizens.

It is worth noting that one does not create suicide bombers overnight. Clearly the regime has been fomenting some of its own Islamic extremism to create these "weapons."

Line of the Day: "If the Americans stay here, we are afraid of nothing." (Majmadin Majid, a Kurdish regular) Source: WaPo.
Excellent: Kurdish-U.S. Assault Takes Town
With U.S. Special Forces operating field artillery, calling in airstrikes and supervising a massive infantry charge, 6,000 Kurdish fighters today overwhelmed a band of radical Islamic Kurds in a remote mountain valley in northeastern Iraq.

The combined Kurdish-U.S. assault began at dawn and ended in a rout. By midafternoon this rugged village in the Shram Mountains near the Iranian border was no longer the headquarters of Ansar al-Islam, a small but dangerous militant group that the Bush administration charges has links to the al Qaeda terror network.

I Thought the Iraqis Eschewed Terrorism? Suicide Bombing Kills U.S. Troops
60 Minutes II on Umm Qasr

Did anyone see the 60 Minutes II piece on Wednesday night on the distribution of aid to Iraqi civilians at Umm Qasr? If anyone saw the US serviceman, who had tears in his eyes because of the joy he saw on the faces of Iraqi children because the US had brought water, and still can call this cause unjust, or worse, claim that we are purposefully killing women and children, are out of touch with reality. Further, the fact that a substantial part of the reason that the people in Umm Qasr didn't have water was because the regime halted shipments even before the war started should quell any talk of the moral equivalency of the two sides.

Indeed, the 60 Minutes II piece that same night on the Fadayeen Saddam should utterly destroy any arguments that the two side are in any way the same.

Flipper Lives!

There is just something surreal and very American about all of this (plus, great pic):


Source: U.S. Navy/NPR

The whole story is here.

May They Be Successful: U.S. Teams Seek to Kill Iraqi Elite. And I suspect there is quite a bit that we don't know about:
The previously undisclosed operation suggests U.S. efforts to destroy the Iraqi government's leadership are far more extensive than previously known, and have continued since the March 20 airstrike on a residential compound in the suburbs of Baghdad.

That paragraph leapt out at me, as the press often presents this omniscient attitude that they know all, see all, and therefore can critique all.

The Result of the Irregulars The ironic thing, it occurs to me, of the increase in guerrilla, irregular, and terrorist tactics by the Iraqis will bolster the hard-core pro-war faction, as these acts simply prove the evil that the regime contains (I am especially thinking of the nefarious tactics of the Fedayeen Saddam), while those who were opposed in the first place will simply point to all of these terrible happenings as evidence we shouldn't have gotten involved in the first place.

Friday, March 28

Elite Eight: Hook'em again: Texas 82, Connecticut 78
The Calculus of War

While I will admit to thinking that things were going remarkably well a week ago today, and I would have predicted that we would have been farther along by today, I must admit that the layer of gloom that the press, and many armchair generals, are laying on right now is a bit thick. While I know some pontificated that this was going to be super-easy, I don't think that most informed persons thought this would be the case. (It is noteworthy that public opinion polling seems to indicate that the American people understand the complexity of the situation, even if the media, on balance, does not). I never thought this was would be won in a week. A month, yes, a week? Please.

Further, I think that our time perception has been distorted by the live coverage and twenty-hour-a-day coverage. It makes us impatient. And I find that the more information I have, the more I want. I am rarely satiated. I always know there is more to know.

In additional to all of that, and understanding the amount of time it takes is an issue, I would note the following: First, wars cannot be truly evaluated as to their success or failure until after they are completed. Second, consider the following metrics of war, and then tell me if the gloom is warranted:

  • Who controls the skies of Iraq?

  • How much territory is under the control of the regime, and how much by the coalition?

  • How many US/coalition soldiers have been wounded, killed, or captured? How many Iraqis?

  • How many US military assets have been destroyed? Iraqi assets?

  • How many Iraqi targets of military significance have been destroyed or seriously damaged in the last week?

  • Which military faces likely serious re-supply problems shortly?

  • and the list goes on...

I recognize that there are political considerations as well: how many civilian casualties? How many civilians and infrastructural facilities have been damaged or destroyed, how long is it going to take, etc. But the bottom line is that by any objective standard, there is no cause for doom and panic. Rather, the thing that can be said is that the best case scenario did not take place, and it rarely does.

Line of the Day: "Their name, Fedayeen Saddam, is a lie, because their purpose is certainly not to make martyrs of themselves, but to make martyrs of innocent Iraqis opposed to Saddam's rule. But we will take them at their word, and if their wish is to die for Saddam Hussein, they will be accommodated" (SecDef, Donald Rumsfeld, 3/28/03, DoD News Briefing).
I'm Back! Lots to catch up on. Some entries to follow tonight.

Wednesday, March 26

PoliBlog Status Report

I will be out of town over the next several days at the Latin American Studies Association conference. See you all back in Blogosphere on Friday.

Speaking of Reaping What You Sow… I think we are paying the price of diplomacy, as one analyst put it yesterday. Clearly while we played footsy with the UN and the French, Saddam was able to deploy secret police and various irregular troops into civilian populations. Clearly many of the Iraqis are afraid to surrender, revolt or otherwise support our military. There have been reports of Iraqis dressed as US military, accepting surrendering Iraqis soldiers and then executing those seeking to lay down their arms. It isn’t a pretty picture, and I suspect we will learn a good number of horror stories along this line.
Ghosts of the Past

I used to be of the position that I understood why the Forty-One administration did not head on to Baghdad when the chance was there. However, in retrospect, I find myself somewhat sickened by the fact that we asked the Iraqi people to rise up and then did not come to their aid. I think that we are at least partially reaping the results of that policy. While I still maintain that the vast majority of the Iraqi people will ultimately see this conflict as a liberation, I think many are waiting to make sure that we are serious, and that we are indeed going to kill the regime, before rising up again. The situation in Basra, however, is most encouraging.

The part that sickens me is the thought of brave men and women, wanting to get free from tyranny, risking their lives with the hope that cavalry was coming, but the good guys on white horses never arrived. It is truly a crime to have done that to those people.

Tuesday, March 25

You Have Got to be Kidding Me: France Seeks Big Role in Post-War Iraq
Tax Set-Back? As has been well-reported today, an amendment passed on the floor of the Senate today that halved the President's tax proposal. This has widely been described as a "set back" (if not outright defeat) to the President's domestic policy agenda. However, as was also reported, but then ignored most of the day, the House passed the tax package intact. Now, that means something very simple, and very important: it is far from over with as to what will be in the tax package. The Senate vote is no more total defeat than the House vote is total victory. The bills will have to be reconciled, and any number of things may yet happen. Indeed, the reconciliation process is multi-faceted, complex and could result in the tax package dying entirely, being restored entirely, or radically altered in some way.

I can never decide if the media writ large simply does not understand how the legislative process works, or if they are willfully ignorant in public to enhance the significance of the part of the vote they prefer. Neither is a flattering picture.

more of PoliBlogger's Mediaese-to-English Dictionary: "Protracted War"

USAGE: "Well, Peter, it seems that since the war was not won within 72 hours, the coalition now faces a protracted war."

TRANSLATION: In plain English, this means "a war," or "a real war." see also: battle, conflict, fight. In other words, it might take a few weeks, maybe a month. Like the entry on "unexpectedly strong resistance" when used by speakers of mediaese it connotes a failure. Note: do not confuse speakers of mediaese by pointing out that the World Wars, Korea and Vietnam all took years.

This Continues to Sound Promising: Anti-Saddam rising unfurls in Basra
And stocks rally: US stocks rise; Dow adds to gains by midday

It is almost comical, good news, stocks up! bad news, stocks down! It does make for an interesting, if imperfect, barometer as to the national mood vis-a-vis the war.

Good News from the same story linked below:
Earlier, British military sources said about 20 of Saddam Hussein's henchmen were killed and a key party official captured in a raid by British forces near Basra on Monday night.
PoliBlogger's Mediaese-to-English Dictionary: "Unexpectedly Strong Resistance"

USAGE: "US forces have encountered unexpectedly strong resistance leading many to wonder if the strategy is flawed."

DEFINITION: The phrase means, in plain English, "the best case scenario did not take place" (synonym: everything isn't perfect), and carries the connotation, by native speakers of mediaese (and many anti-warites), that some failure has occurred, even if no such failure has occurred. Proper translation should take this into account.

"Peace Activism": Dennis Prager has an excellent column on the specific case of Rachel Corrie's death during her attempt at shielding a Palestinian home against an Israeli bulldozer, and the broader issue of idealistic peace activists. I will say that I have mixed, and mostly negative, feelings on the Israeli policy of bulldozing the homes of homicide bombers' families. I am not convinced that it is an effective policy. It may contain a measure of justice (assuming that the families are indeed accomplices, which is not necessarily the case), but it likely does much more harm than good. However, trying to stop a bulldozer by squatting in a house in the process of being torn down is not smart. Further, protesting the Israelis while supporting Palestinian terrorists is not a noble cause.

Some worthwhile snippets from the Prager column:

Rachel Corrie chose to side with a society that breeds some of the cruelest murderers of innocent people in the world. Rachel Corrie gave her life trying to protect people whose declared aim is to annihilate another country. In the name of saving children's lives, Rachel Corrie chose to defend a society that teaches its young children to blow themselves up and which deliberately targets children for death. And Rachel Corrie went to America's enemies to burn her country's flag.

And, specifically, his comments on peace activism, and “idealism” in general is worth reading, as I think he is spot-on:

We are told repeatedly that Rachel was idealistic -- as if that matters. Virtually every person who commits great evil -- the Nazi, the Communist, the Islamic terrorist -- is idealistic. Idealism is morally neutral. It is good only when directed to good ends. But in young people, idealism is at least as likely to lead to bad as to good because few young people are wise -- and idealism without wisdom is very dangerous.

We are told ad nauseam that Rachel Corrie was a "peace activist." So let it be said once and for all that most of these people are moral frauds. Why? Because "peace activists" routinely protest only against peaceful countries. Has there been one Evergreen State or other "peace activist" in Sudan during its Islamic government's slaughter and enslavement of millions of blacks? Are there any "peace activists" in Tibet to protect its unique culture from being eradicated by the Communist Chinese? Did you notice any "peace activists" trying to save the millions of North Koreans dying at the hands of their lunatic government? Of course not. Rachel Corrie and other "peace activists" only target peace-loving Israel and America.

An alleged love of peace at any cost, often leads to a furtherance of evil. The situation in Iraq underscores this--those who protest in the name of "peace" and the "Iraqi people" would have been satisfied with the status quo, which allowed Saddam Hussein to terrorize his population and use it wealth for his own selfish ends. Hardly a good trade off.

Indeed: Cal Thomas' column is worth a look. Two issues strike me. First (not unlike what I said here:
If the war to liberate Iraq continues to go well; if there are relatively few coalition and civilian casualties; if an "environmental disaster" does not occur with the mass torching of oil wells; if chemical and biological weapons are not used either because American threats of severe consequences have been heard or coalition forces have preemptively taken them out; if Israel is not hit with Scud missiles; if, in short, we achieve every objective, what will the naysayers say?

And, especially:

Can any fair-minded person say we are behaving in a "habitually cruel" manner in Iraq? Have not the coalition forces gone out of their way to strike only military targets (as opposed to the habitually cruel homicide bombers in Israel who go after innocent civilians and Saddam Hussein who is an equal opportunity murderer?). Have we not declared our intention to install a democratic government in Iraq, run by Iraqis and not the United States, as soon as it is feasible?

Any who want to draw moral equivalencies between the US and Iraq in any way are clearly wearing willful blinders.

Brief Oscar Commentary: I didn't watch the Oscars, so got what little news about it from secondary sources. I just learned last night (in a wrap-up with sound and video bites) that Roman Polanski won the "Best Director" award. Polanski wasn't there, of course, because he is a fugitive from US justice, given a little, shall we say, dalliance, with a then 13-year-old girl (you know, the encounter which resulted in a child rape conviction?) Yet, when the award was announced there were great applause and celebration. This from the same audience where many sat in silence, or even clapped, during Michael Moore’s rant about President Bush and the war. Not to paint with an over-broad brush, but the moral bankruptcy of Hollywood was quite clear in that moment.
International Law Redux

The ongoing discussion of the treatment of POWs, and the issue of Iraqi irregular troops, wholly underscores the fragility of international law and agreements. One can assert that it is “illegal” for the Iraqis to parade our servicemen and women in front of the cameras, the President can state that we “expect” the Iraqis to treat our prisoners well, and General Franks can point out that fake surrenders that turn into ambushes are against the “rules” of combat, but the bottom line is that the force of “international law” cannot make the Iraqis behave. The War Referees, dressed in black and white stripes (and really loud whistles) are not going to pop up from behind a sand dune and flag the Iraqis. Indeed, the only power that is going to make the Iraqis adhere to the rules is the force applied to them by coalition forces. We can punish, ex post, war “criminals” but the reason we will be able to do so, is because we will win the military conflict.

And specifically on the topic of the Geneva Conventions, it is highly noteworthy (and indeed, has been noted by many, including James at OTB, that we follow the rules and humanly treat prisoners because that’s the way we do things, not because a treaty says so. At its root, international law is enforceable only by force, and only when the rules have already failed.

Monday, March 24

Here's a List of Casualties, POWs, MIAs. And at the risk of sounding overly callous, or cold, I must say that despite all the hand-wringing, to be into this war 5 plus days and have only 19 dead and 12 missing or captured it remarkable. And if you read the causes of death, many are not due to the enemy, but rather to accidents.

And the striking thing is that is one was to watch much of the news today, you would think 100 times as many people were dead.

They Can Complain, But...

Pentagon Complains About Fake Surrenders The story does provide some interesting insights into what is going on in Iraq:

"They are sending forces out carrying white surrender flags or dressing them as liberated civilians to draw coalition forces into ambushes," said Victoria Clarke, spokeswoman for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. "Both of these actions are among the most serious violations of the laws of war," she said.

Also of interest:

Asked about the relatively slow pace of Iraqi surrendering, McChrystal suggested that members of the Fedayeen, Saddam Hussein's most trusted militia, had infiltrated regular Iraqi army units, telling them to "fight or be shot in the back."

This latter point is especially interesting. It reminds me that had Saddam not had all those months to prepare for this war, that it likely would be unfolding differently.

Thanks, UN. Thanks, France.

They Can Complain, But...

Pentagon Complains About Fake Surrenders The story does provide some interesting insights into what is going on in Iraq:

"They are sending forces out carrying white surrender flags or dressing them as liberated civilians to draw coalition forces into ambushes," said Victoria Clarke, spokeswoman for Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. "Both of these actions are among the most serious violations of the laws of war," she said.

Also of interest:

Asked about the relatively slow pace of Iraqi surrendering, McChrystal suggested that members of the Fedayeen, Saddam Hussein's most trusted militia, had infiltrated regular Iraqi army units, telling them to "fight or be shot in the back."

This latter point is especially interesting. It reminds me that had Saddam not had all those months to prepare for this war, that it likely would be unfolding differently.

Thanks, UN. Thanks, France.

Meanwhile, in the war against al Qaeda: Second Al Qaeda Trainee Pleads Guilty
An amusing pic over at OTB
Aziz Alive (unless, of course it is a body double): Saddam in 'Full Control,' Aziz Says. One does wonder why he didn't make any commments in English, however.
Uday, a Great Guy: From, of all places, SI Son of Saddam - Monday March 24, 2003 02:11 PM. I had meant to blog this this weekend after I read in it in the actual, believe it or not, Dead Tree version. The body double of Uday intereviewed in the piece was on TV this weekend (I forget what network). While he was anti-Saddam, he was also anti-war (which strikes me largely as a non sequitur).
Worse than I predicted this morning, but not surprising: Dow Falls Sharply Amid Fears of Prolonged War
An interesting piece on Iraqi nationalism, that provides some optimism that there is sufficient unity to sustain a post-Saddam state that maintains current national boundaries and identities: IDENTITY: Iraq, More Unified Than It Looks
Amusing:

3k!--PoliBlog just passed the 3000 hit-mark. Thanks for the all the visits!
SaddamWatch: One does wonder as to why, if he is alive, he doesn't just make a video that would 100% establish itself by content. Although, granted, the whole "body-double" issue would be in place, but the CIA seems to be able to deal with that. At ant rate, it is odd that all the tapes have been vague in terms of when they were shot.
Franks Speaks: "I see nothing unexpected here" (from today's briefing). And I am certain this is 100% true. I am no military expert, and while I have argued that the Iraqis will see us as liberators, I didn't expect every single soldier to throw down their arms immediately, nor did I expect the citizens to start giving parades as soon as we arrived. Anyone who applied a rational eye and mind to this knew that there was going to be resistance, and that there was going to be fatalities on our side. It simply stands to reason.

These people are still living in fear of Saddam. Further, many of their military know their days are numbered, insofar as they are war criminals, so why not fight? Really, as I keep noting, the set-backs to this point are minor in the grand scheme of things. And this is not to diminish death, or the fate of the POWs--but if we are going to go into panic over death in war, then we shouldn't wage war. Indeed, we might as well pack up the military. More American died in the two recent nightclub incidences than have died to date in this conflict.

Indeed: On Weekdays, It's a Web War (of course, in the Blogosphere, everyday is WebDay). And, samrt move:
Many newspapers greatly increased their bandwidth and server capacity after 9/11.

I remember everything being down on 911, and then the major sites going to text only. In fact, I first noticed the major news sources' lack of capacity during the 2000 presidential election.

I must say, I will be quite pleased when we finally get this guy, or proff that we already got him. I tired of these kinds of things: Iraqi TV Shows Hussein Rallying Troops (washingtonpost.com)
The Market: My guess is that the market will be down, or at least mixed, today. I suspect the negative news from yesterday will have an emotional effect on trading. We shall see. It is fascinating to watch how irrationally positive and irrationally negative reactions affect these things. It will also be interesting to watch and see how the Dow reacts through the day, depending on news from the war. Especially since we are getting close to Baghdad.
I just heard a clip of Michael Moore's "protest" speech at the Oscars last night. I was not surprised as his vitriol, but was surprised (and pleased) and the vigorously negative reaction from many in the audience.

Sunday, March 23

Despite the fact that some clearly horrible things happened today, to be four and a half days into a major armed conflict, and only have 20 dead or missing and 50 wounded is astoundingly positive. While today should remind us all that this is not, as a commentator on TV mentioned a while ago, a "video game or a movie," it should not generate great angst and pessimism either. Stats from here: Iraq Broadcasts Images of Prisoners — U.S. Assails Ruses
BTW, if I may say: Hook'em Horns: Texas 77, Purdue 67
We have hit that point in the news cycle where there is no real "new" news, so the pointless blather from people who don't know what they are talking about begins. Such is the downside of 24/7 coverage. Plus, one gets the impression that in the absence of new major events, the A-Team is at home resting up tonight.
What's Up with Greta? She is on Fox right now all pessimistic about the war, and insisting that there hasn't been enough "jubilation" in the streets, and is opining that this might be a "bad sign." Bill Kristol rightly noted that we really don't know what the Iraqis are thinking and that four days into the war it is a bit early to decide if the Iraqis believe themselves to be liberated or not.

The impatience (and lack of understanding how these things work) by some in the press is remarkable. Yesterday it was “but General, we haven’t found chemical weapons yet!” (and, it appears we now have), and now there is some negative news and one would think that the war has turned in the direction of the regime.

Also, I would note that there is probably a good reason why there is a lack of jubilation—in 1991 they rose up, but we didn’t stay and help. I would guess that most of the Iraqis who hate Saddam are wary, and therefore will bide their time before singing the Iraqi version of “Ding, Dong the Witch is Dead.”

The Command Post Has Moved: Command Post - A Warblog Collective
Not as Good as the Real Thing, But a Start

Source: MSNBC

Interesting (and it makes more sense): Iran: Missile was Iraqi (Hat tip to K Lo at The Corner at NRO)
Funny/Frightening: National guardman changed his name to a toy (Hat tip: Dave Barry).
Hopefully So, But I am Skeptical: Iraq Says It Will Follow Geneva Convention for POWs. Their track record in the past has not been too impressive, and they have already shown themselves to be in violation of the convention by parading them in front of TV cameras.

This situation is another example of the inherent weakness of international law. I noted in an earlier post that the US had the power to ignore international law if it wanted in going to war, demonstrating the lack of true enforce of such "laws." Unfortunately, in the case of POWs, there may well be rules about how the Iraqis should treat our soldiers, but at present, there is no one watching the Iraqis who can make them behave. As such, international laws governing the treatment of POWs are worthless when applied to states willing to abuse prisoners. We will follow international law regarding the Iraqis we catch, but we would have treated them humanly anyway.

My thanks to PolitiBlog for linking to PoliBlog.
PoliBlogger on Dead Tree (and my semi-secret identity revealed): Liberation faces test in Iraqi experiment. Loyal readers (reader?) will recognize the genesis of column from here on PoliBlog.
Rumscraft: Rumsfled confirms surrenders in the "1000s" in Iraq. He notes that resistant has been "uneven"--stiff in some cases, nonexistent in others.

He called general progress as "excellent."

Fascinating: I was a naive fool to be a human shield for Saddam
We just sat, listening, our mouths open wide. Jake, one of the others, just kept saying, "Oh my God" as the driver described the horrors of the regime. Jake was so shocked at how naive he had been. We all were. It hadn't occurred to anyone that the Iraqis might actually be pro-war.

The driver's most emphatic statement was: "All Iraqi people want this war." He seemed convinced that civilian casualties would be small; he had such enormous faith in the American war machine to follow through on its promises. Certainly more faith than any of us had.

Perhaps the most crushing thing we learned was that most ordinary Iraqis thought Saddam Hussein had paid us to come to protest in Iraq. Although we explained that this was categorically not the case, I don't think he believed us. Later he asked me: "Really, how much did Saddam pay you to come?"

And you have to love this epiphany:

Anyone with half a brain must see that Saddam has to be taken out. It is extraordinarily ironic that the anti-war protesters are marching to defend a government which stops its people exercising that freedom.

It is remarkable that the guy practically had to be hit over the head to see the obvious. And he is a journalist. It is utterly remarkable, the degree to which one can be blind to the facts plainly in front of one's face. (Hat Tip to PoliticaObscura via The Command Post.

Ironic, if Anything. There is no tactful way to say it, but it is nonetheless true that to date we have been more dangerous to ourselves than have the Iraqis. I am not sure of the current numbers, but I think actual combat deaths are in the low single digits, while crashed helicopters, friendly fire and a grenade rolling idiot in US uniform account for the preponderance of the deaths and causalities. In the overall calculus of war this signals success, but there is something profoundly disturbing about those deaths, as they all seem preventable in some way. One expects to have higher risk of death on the battlefield, but helicopter crashes and friendly fire, while just as inevitable a part of war as enemy fire, seem more of a waste.

Saturday, March 22

Holy Fashion Flop, Batman

Since when did Mrs. TwoFace work for the Pentagon?

Seriously, this is what you grab out of the closet when you are going to be on global TV? (Hat to to the Agonist).

Some Great Photography: This Would Inspire Some Awe


Smoke billows during a US strike on a presidential palace in Baghdad(AFP/Karim Sahib)

An explosion rocks Baghdad during air strikes March 21, 2003. Large explosions shook Baghdad during a night of blistering air strikes, as U.S. and British ground forces advancing across southern Iraq battled for hours for control of a strategic airfield. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

I'm not so sure they are in any position to make threats:
Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri on Sunday warned neighboring Turkey against supporting a U.S.-led war against Baghdad, vowing "multiple harm" for Iraq's enemies.

Source: Iraq's Sabri Warns Turkey Against War Moves

Were I Saddam, I am not sure I would want to take credit for the defense of Iraq to date: Iraqi TV Declares Saddam in Control

When dictatorships under duress start shouting how everything is under control to the population, one can pretty much be assured that things aren't under control. He has got to be either dead, or seriously injured. Or maybe he is so scared that he is is a deep, deep hidey-hole. Any of those are good options for us. Dead is my favorite, however.

War! What's it Good For?: "War was our top search term today, taking over from perennial favorites -- sex, Britney [Spears] and travel," Source: CNN.com-War ousts sex, music in Web searches
How anyone can see the pictures of a largely intact Baghdad, with the lights still on and argue that we are bombing the Iraqi people is beyond me. There is a reason why there has yet to be the expected waves of refugees: we are working very hard not to blow people's home up, so they don't have to leave.

Although, I have a question: who are those people I occassionally see driving around Baghdad? Methinks I would just stay home.

Chock full o' Awe

A building shows damage in Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's palace compound March 22, 2003, after being hit by an air strike the previous night, in Baghdad. Fresh afternoon explosions rocked Baghdad on Saturday and smoke was seen rising from several locations across the Iraqi capital, a Reuters witness said. 'There are six columns of thick black smoke rising from six different bombed positions,' correspondent Nadim Ladki said. RETUERS/Goran Tomasevic

Line of the Day 2: "I believe command and control is not exactly as advertised on Baghdad television" --General Tommy Franks, 3/22/03

Source: East Anglian Daily Times news

More Good Economic News: Oil Prices Ease on Supply Assurances.

Also, this is good evidence against those who argue that recent price hikes were part of collusion by "Big Oil." If there was ever a time that it would be relatively easy to artificially inflate prices, now would be the time. Rather, it would appear that the market more or less works.

Hopefully this will translate into noticeable gas prices drops soon--my daily commute is 45 minutes of highway driving one-way, and these gas prices aren't much fun.

WMD's: I cannnot believe that people are already saying "where are the weapons of mass destruction?" We just started the war on Wednesday night, fer cryin' out loud. Indeed, the only way we would have found them at this early a stage is if the Iraqis had used them against us. Given that fact, I am quite pleased we haven't found any yet.

It will take months after the shooting is done before we find out all there is to know about the WMDs and such. If they were all just sitting out in the open, even Hans Blix would have found them. Yeesh.

I find it hard to get upset about this: US checking Iran strike reports, at least as long as no one was hurt. No need to spark an international incident with Iran at this point, but "violating" their airspace doesn't exactly cause me great angst.
On War as a Legitimate Tool of Policy

Brace yourselves for the fact that even if the war continues to go well, there will be plenty on the left who will not be willing to acquiesce to the idea that the policy was sound. They will continue to bemoan the loss of the inspections regime, they will continue to rue the loss of "the institutions of collective security" (the UN, NATO, etc.--you know, the institutions which have prevented all war and bloodshed until George W. Bush became President), and they will, undoubtedly, continually point to civilian deaths even if the numbers are far smaller than they predicted, and even if the basic response of the Iraqi people is positive (I can hear it now, "But at what cost, Peter?").

Part of what makes me consider this issue (aside from the simple fact that it is true) is that I have an anti-war colleagues who will be unlikely to fully admit that war can accomplish just goals. I was struck by a comment made in one conversation that I had where reference was made to seeing the bombings on TV and noting how "horrible" it was. And with the follow-up comment: "but I guess that's how war is." The thing that struck me about the comment was not that war isn't horrible, it is, but rather the seeming lack of acknowledgment that while bombings are bad, living under a totalitarian dictator is far worse. In other words, the comments in question, and much of the anti-warites criticisms in general, seem to begin from the premise that ignores the horrors of pre-war Iraq for the common citizen.

I am not arguing that liberation is the main goal of the Bush administration, as this is primarily a national security operation. However, the anti-warites tend to start their arguments from the basis that the war itself will inflict great damage on the Iraqi civilian population. If the predicates for their arguments are based on issues of civilian well-being, then it would seem that an honest argument would have to take into consider pre-war, during war, and post-war conditions to make a cogent and rational argument about the rightness or wrongness of the bombing. However, this appears not to be the case with many of the war's critics.

In summary, those on the left who really had the interests of the Iraqi people in mind as the basis of their anti-warism will have to change their minds ex post, if the war goes well. Otherwise they will be exposed as being intellectually dishonest.

How Nice: France Sends Chemical Detection Unit to Qatar
France, a staunch opponent of war in Iraq, said on Saturday it would send personnel and chemical, bacteriological and nuclear detection equipment to Qatar, fulfilling a defense pact with the emirate.
Neil Cavuto and guests are currently bolstering my argument that the global economic outlook is positive as a result of the war so far. As Cavuto just said, it has been "Stocks and Awe" so far.
Quite the Contrast: The best the Iraqis can do against our tech is moats full of gasoline and sabotaging oil wells. In other words: their main weapon fire. Not exactly 21st century warfare.
But Will She Retract if She is Wrong? This piece by Linda Heard (Oh What a Dreadful, Manipulated War) in the Palestine Chronicle is typical left-originating criticism of the war, and the use of force in general. It is remarkable in its ability to
  • Believe that the inspections regime was actually working, and about to bear key fruit,

  • Ignore the evil being visited on the Iraqis by the regime--as if the deaths under "containment" were all the result of evil sanctions, and had nothing to do with the way Saddam governed the country,

  • Believe all the worst case scenarios about the war, and

  • To assume that any positive footage will be an attempt to manipulate, rather than report.

The piece's dateline is 3/19, so it was written before the conflict started. One wonders if after seeing what has been done thusfar that she will at least partially acknowledge that the massive bombardments, and indeed the military actions in general, have been carefully aimed at the regime. I will acknowledge that there will be civilian deaths and the much dreaded collateral damage. However, as Rusmfeld pointed out yesterday, this is a very different kind of war and a bombing campaign unlike any in history. And if it turns out that we needlessly killed civilians, or that the "smart" bombs weren't so smart, I will admit that I was wrong and seek a re-examination of these types of policies. However, I suspect that the anti-warites will not retract their positions, or attempt to correct their thinking, if the war goes well and is as advertised. Even if we do inflict more daamge than advertised, one still has to wonder if the Iraqi people still won;t be better off than they were under Saddam.

Also, can she truly believe with the plethora of press on the ground, that only good stories will be written and that there won't be reports of civilian deaths? The military has taken a gamble (a good gamble, I think, but a gamble nonetheless) in "embedding" the press in various military units. They will see more than has ever been seen before. And we all know that there are enough anti-force/anti-administration/anti-Rumsfeld/anti-stuff types in the press, not to mention simple drama-seeking editors and reporters, that they will find the negative stories.

The Good News Continues: 8,000 Iraqi soldiers in 'mass surrender'


Source: BBC
Line of the Day: "[T]he regime is history." --SecDef Donald Rumsfeld, 3/21/03
Good Stuff


Source: NYT
I Begin to Allow Myself Some Optimism. Something ain't right with Saddam. He is dead or wounded. This strikes me as an obviously pre-taped message: Saddam Says Will Respect Rights of POWs - Iraq TV

I Mean what POWs? Michael Scott Speicher from GWI?

And I am most interested in the "images" we supposedly have of him being put on a stretcher after the initial attack Wednesday night.

You Don't Say?: War Can Send Shares Higher or Lower
Broadly speaking, United States stocks rise during wartime when traders think events have turned in the country's favor.

This has got to be one of the most obvious bits of "analysis" I have seen in some time. It also strikes me that the headline is a backhanded way of noting that war success is thusfar helping the markets. One guesses that many at the NYT were anti-war, and that puts one in the unfortunate position that to be right by being anti-war, bad things have to happen. If good things happen (stocks go up, Iraqis rejoice at their liberation, other tyrannts and terrorists learn to fear the military and technological might of the US), then what's an anti-warite to do?

In this case it seems to point out that it could have been really bad.

Friday, March 21

An interesting piece on warblogging/the blog phenom in general: Online commentators are seizing the moment (Hat tip to Kausfiles).
Another Big Day on Wall Street: +235.37 (+2.84%)

I am now part of The Command Post, a consortium of bloggers dedicated to war news. Check it out.
Gee, I though the war was going cause regional unrest Of course, some kinds of unrest can be a very good thing: Hopes and Fears: While Iran's political and religious leaders have condemned Washington's move against Iraq, much of the country will be celebrating if Saddam Hussein's regime is overthrown, writes Dan De Luce
"It will be a good thing to have American troops in Iraq. Perhaps that will bring change to Iran," said Namin, a lanky engineering student strolling to class.

"Maybe that will put more pressure on the regime here." Unlike fellow Muslims in the Middle East or their predecessors 23 years ago who seized the United States embassy, students today are not seething with anger against America and are unmoved by the government's daily references to "the enemy" in Washington.

"I think only about the consequences of a war. If the war has good consequences, let it be," said another student, Mohammad. "We're not protesting like European students. We don't have a democratic government like they do. We're not acting like them because we're not in European shoes."

Politically incorrect attitudes on campus are not helping calm the nerves of the country's conservative leadership, which appears genuinely concerned at the implications of "regime change" next door.


Speaking of the Saddam Speech: U.S. Says Video Was of Hussein but Is Unsure When It Was Made
The Central Intelligence Agency has concluded that Saddam Hussein himself was indeed on the videotape shown on Iraqi television hours after opening attack of the United States-led war against Iraq, the White House said today.
Clearly, Baghdad doesn't have a Lenscrafters. Those are some ugly glasses:

The story that goes with the picture is worth a read: Did the Real Saddam Just Stand Up?.

Well, then, no big deal:: Paris: Ricin find 'non lethal'. And especially no big deal if this is case:
He also said France may not have been the intended target of those who had left the deadly ricin in two small bottles at Gare de Lyon station Monday.

Instead it may have been destined to be used by Chechen rebels.

Just goes to show: be nice to terrorists and they'll be nice to you.

Bombs Away? ABC news, via KOGO in San Diego, is reporting anti-aircraft fire and explosions in Baghdad. It is just after noon eastern.
Excellent!: From FOXNews.com
SAWFAN, Iraq — U.S. Marines hauled down giant street portraits of Saddam Hussein in a screeching pop of metal and bolts Friday, telling nervous residents of this southern Iraqi town that "Saddam is done."

[...]

"Americans very good," Ali Khemy said. "Iraq wants to be free."

Some chanted, "Ameriki! Ameriki!"

Many others in the starving town just patted their stomachs and raised their hands, begging for food.

A man identifying himself only as Abdullah welcomed the arrival of the U.S. troops: "Saddam Hussein is no good. Saddam Hussein a butcher."

An old woman shrouded in black -- one of the very few women outside -- knelt toward the feet of Americans, embracing an American woman. A younger man with her pulled her away, giving her a warning sign by sliding his finger across his throat.

But, of course, going the UN route would have been more humanitarian and "nice".

One of the Horsemen Speaks: Congrats to James of OTB for getting a well-deserved plug at Instapundit.com:
A great image:



A Marine of the U.S. Marine Expeditionary Unit Fox Company "Raiders" replaces the Iraqi flag at the entrance to Iraq's main port of Umm Qasr Friday. The U.S. flag was later reportedly removed from the terminal building.
Source: MSNBC

ABC News Online Despite launching, prior to the war, an online-only version of their newscast (sort of a newschannel online), they clearly did not prepare for the circumstances where people would actually want> such a thing, i.e., during a big news event. I have tried two days in a row to use their service, with no luck. I can't even get on their site this morning. MSNBC online has been better, but only slightly.
Irrational or not, evidence on economy-war linkage continues. I have argued in the past that a successful war would unlease some of the pent-up economic energy that the country has been sitting on due to war jitters. And while it is still a looong way to go, it is clear that success is breeding more confidence, as the eight-straight days of the Dow heading upwards demonstrates: U.S. stocks rise, pushing Dow toward eighth up day
A Brief History of the Evolution of War Coverage

WWII: Sanitized Newsreels and old news in the paper.

Vietnam: Waiting for Uncle Walter and the nightly news. Hey look, color moving pictures, and from the same day!

Gulf War I: This is CNN! (We thought we were in info-heaven with one 24 hour news channel and news in the newspaper that was only 8 hours old.)

Gulf War II: Live footage of the exact moment the war starts, info on intel operations within 24 hours, live footage of troops crossing into enemy territory, four cable news networks, newspapers updated constantly on the web, and the Blogosphere.

My, how times have changed.

Today's Winner of the "No Duh!" Award: BLIX: SCUDS A "VIOLATION" (Hat tip to Jonah Goldberg at The Corner). And now he admits this:
Even though he wanted more time for inspections, Blix said yesterday that he didn't know if he could ever be sure that Iraq wasn't hiding the illegal missiles. (emphasis mine)

Thursday, March 20

May it be so From an interview of John Burns of the NYT's by PBS's Gwen Ifill
JOHN BURNS: But there is absolutely... can I just say there is absolutely no doubt, no doubt that there are many, many Iraqis who see what is about to happen here as the moment of liberation.

Read the whole thing--most interesting.

(Hat tip to Eugene Volokh)

I Can Hardly Wait I had better go set my VCR now! Monica Lands Job as Reality Show Host
Intriguing: Hussein's Fate Still Uncertain
Officials said they were not surprised by the broadcast because they had information that the Iraqi leader had recorded several statements earlier in the week in anticipation of a military strike shortly after the expiration of a U.S. deadline for Hussein and his sons to leave the country.

According to a WaPo reporter on MSNBC (I think it was Dana Priest, who co-wrote the story linked above) there is evidence that Saddam taped several messages with different dates to show in case he was unable to be present himself on TV. I look forward to the book a few years from now that gives the scoop on on out intel ops in Baghdad if really do have this kind of info.

A good one from the Skeptician: Iraq Destroys Prohibited Scud Missile
Get a New Term: What is this new word: shockandawe? Perhaps it is is German: zochundau. Or American Indian: Choqanaw?

Has a term hit the level of cliche any faster than "shock and awe?" Anybody got a Thesaurus?

Send Hans Blix to Paris!: Ricin found in Paris
Boots on the Ground: Fox is reporting US troops on the ground in Northern, Southern and Western Iraq.
Jeffrey Collins of joyfulchristian may have discovered a new sociological law.
War Blog Poll: Forbes.com is running a poll on the Best War Blogs. Clearly the poll hasn't hit the Blogosphere hard yet, as there aren't all that many votes. Also, I wonder where they got their nominations.

It is intriguing that the Blogosphere is getting more and more references of late in the mainstream press.

(Hat tip to Jonah Golddberg at The Coner at NRO)

Scuds: Well, I have finally heard several references to the fact that Scuds violate UN resolutions. My previous discussion of Scuds can be found here (with a map and everything!).
John Lemon at John Lemon's Barrel of Fish has coined a new term: "Rumsmanship" which I think will live on for some time. Read about it here. The quotes from Rummy's news conference are worth the trip by themselves.
You know you live the modern era where you come out of a meeting three hours later and find that there is already more news about the war than you can absorb.
Lights with the Action Interesting, Peter Arnett (sorry to have use him as a source, but all I can get online right now is MSBC), is reporting (and showing via video) that the electricity is still on in Baghdad, unlike Gulf War I, where the US took out the electrical grid. Part of the pro-civilian part of the war, I am guessing.
On Failed Diplomacy

On this “failed diplomacy” issue, it strikes me that there is a fundamental flaw in the logic of those who argue that the President messed up, squandered political capital, threw his weight around, etc. The flaw is the assumption that when all this started that all was well in the world, everyone loved the United States and its goals, and therefore when the President started his diplomatic campaign back in September, that the world was “his to lose,” so to speak. If one believes that, then I suppose I can see the “failed diplomacy” argument.

However, the truth is that the current crisis over Iraq, which, yes, was forced by the US, has not created the rifts as much as exposed existing ones.

The constant references to the way the world reacted to 911 (the whole “today we are all Americans” stuff) misses a fundamental point. I will say that at the time, I was touched by the world’s response, but I knew then what I know now: it was based on emotion. And given that fact, I knew it would dissipate. Many seem to think that emotions such as those would have continued, if President Bush had simply been more “diplomatic.” However, that is pie in the sky, not reality. States function based on perceived self-interest, not on sustained good feeling.

Intriguing, although I shan't hold my breath: Bush Administration Questions Hussein Video. I figure that even if we missed him, it provided a little personal "shock and awe" to go along with his morning coffee. It has to be somewhat disconcerting for him to know that the US knew where he was enough to deliver laser-guided bombs on his location. It seems to me that we must have CIA on the ground in Baghdad, which is a very good thing, and should give "Uncle Saddam" something to think about.

Wednesday, March 19

And so it begins...Hopefully they struck a very opportune, "target of opportunity"--at a minimum I am guessing they surprised some folks in Baghdad! I am wondering if "shock and awe" won't begin sometime around noon our time tomorrow.

The President's statement was on-target and well delivered.

A Discussion of Strange Bedfellows

I know that the topic of Iraqi connections with al Qaeda is a relatively "old" topic, but it came up again in a conversation today and so it drove me to write down some thoughts I have had for a while now. There is an argument that is favored mostly by many who are opposed to the war that there is absolutely, positively no connection between Saddam’s Iraq and al Qaeda, or even radical Muslim terrorism in general, nor could there be.

Now, I find this difficult to swallow given the Abu Sayyaf connection (which I have discussed before), the poison factory in the North that is linked to al Qaeda, the whole Abu Nidal thing and so forth. The argument is that Saddam is a secular socialist type and bin Laden has called him an "infidel" and therefore with such incompatible worldviews they would never, could never work together (not even in a box with a fox or on a train in the rain...).

Ok, we can agree, methinks, that both do harbor, shall we say, anti-American sentiment, and that indeed, the major enemy for both is the United States, correct? So, is it reasonable that people with different ideological perspectives and different long-terms goals, but common enemies and immediate goals, might work together? Consider the following:

  • Nazi Germany, under Adolph Hitler, signed two major agreements with Imperial Japan, the Tripartite Pact and the Anti-Comintern Pact. These agreement served mutual interests in the short and medium range. However, if anyone has read any significant excerpts from Mein Kampf on Hitler's views on race, it is impossible to conclude that his long-term goal was to befriend the Japanese.

  • Also speaking of Nazi Germany, the infamous Hitler-Stalin Pact is a good example of ideological opposites working together, at least for a time. Again, if you know anything about National Socialism, you know that it was virulently anti-Bolshevik (i.e., Soviet Communist). For that matter, Soviet Communism was not exactly an ideological fit with National Socialism.

  • Carrying on the WWII theme, the US alliance with Stalin's Soviet Union was hardly an alliance between ideological soul mates who would be friends forevermore after the war.

  • And certainly the US has engaged in strategic partnerships with governments that were otherwise antithetical to our values, but served a specific national security purpose (just look at a lot of out dealings in twentieth century Latin America, or our current alliances with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, for that matter..)

So the argument that groups with different, even radically different, goals cannot work together for a time for a common cause strikes me as a non-starter.

Ok, that's off my chest now, back to your regularly scheduled blogomania.

Cool Maybe he'll invent the sucessor to the internet:Al Gore joins Apple Computer board (or, if he is as smart as he thinks he is, help Apple actually compete with Windows-based machines).
You know, in my (granted, somewhat twisted) fantasy, Dubya will come on TV in about 5 minutes with a stop watch. And at the appropriate moment call "Time! Here we come!"

I know I oughtn't be so flippant about war, but nonetheless, I felt the need to share.

In case you weren't paying attention, or have been living under a rock, or have been cryogenically frozen and recently defrosted or something like that: White House Tells Americans to Prepare for War
The Senate voted down drilling in ANWR again today. The vote was 52-48. I must say I just don't get it. We need the oil, it would be good for the economy, create jobs and affect only a small portion of a very large piece of real estate. This has always struck me as a symbolism over rationality issue. People are so hip on "protecting the environement" that they throw the facts out of the window.

Here's the vote breakdown: US Senate vote on Arctic drilling detailed

Check out John Lemon's Barrel of Fish for a speech by the President concerning Senator Daschle. (The links within the speech are useful as well).
Hy-larious: Protester picks wrong spot to lock himself
A man spent hours chained to the wrong building Tuesday in an ill-planned effort to protest war with Iraq, police said.

Jody Mason padlocked himself to an entrance of the Washington State Grange building at 924 Capitol Way S., thinking it was a sub-office of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Grange employees found him about 11:45 a.m. Tuesday and asked what he was doing.

He told employees he'd chained himself to the building in civil disobedience Monday night after listening to President Bush's televised ultimatum to Saddam Hussein.

[...]

Grange employees explained that he was at the wrong building. The Grange is a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that advocates for residents in rural areas.

(Hat tip to the Michael Medved show)

A shame: Tariq Aziz defection claim. Although to be honest, I don't really want him.
Interesting: Mubarak blames Iraq; Arab countries try final
peace push
Speaking in a nationally televised address Wednesday, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak blamed Iraq for the impending war. "My hope is that the Iraqi government will realize the seriousness of the situation in which it put itself in - and us in - and that the different international forces will realize the dangerous repercussions of any military action on the safety and stability of the Middle East region as well as on the safety and stability of the world as a whole," Mubarak said.
I know that it isn't very egalitarian or diplomatic of me to think this, but this headline cracks me up: It's not too late for peace, says Namibia. Because as we all know, the words of the Namibian government fall heavily upon the hearts and minds of the international community.
Now they want to start being cooperative? French explain Iraq viewpoint

Tuesday, March 18

Utterly Remarkable

This leaves me nigh on to speechless:

From Punditwatch: Al Hunt of the Wall Street Journal, on Capital Gang: "I still think this administration's ineptitude over the last couple months has been stunning. Somehow around the world there's a moral equivalency with this murderous thug Saddam Hussein."

And just think, he has been touted as the moderate on that show.

Another Brief Digression from Politics

I think it is a truism that all children must, at some point, come to great (but shallow) trauma over a balloon. It is basically guarantee, as they will either pop, fly away, or wilt by morning.

I remember distinctly getting a balloon at a pizza parlor when I was around five years of age and coming home with it, and then accidentally letting go of it and watching it fly way, way, away. It is one of those childhood memories that you can replay in your head with remarkable clarity. Similarly I recall the time last summer when one of the kids' balloon hit the hot van, popped, and to quell the tearful distress that ensued, I had to go back into the restaurant and get another balloon.

This comes up because we went out for dinner tonight and the waiter brought the kids balloons. I knew that the six and three year-olds would enjoy them, and figure the one year-old would too, as he really likes balls. But I had no idea how much that child was going to enjoy that balloon. He kept chattering about it and playing with it.

Then we got home, and it flew into the light in the kitchen and popped. He never quite got the concept, despite my attempts at "balloon went bye-bye." He kept looking for the darn thing and went to bed crying over the balloon, although, thankfully he calmed down pretty quickly.

The joy-agony cycle of balloons is pretty remarkable, which of course is linked to that sweet, although sometimes difficult, joy-agony capacity of little ones.

I must say, I am most impressed with Tony Blair. For quite some time I thought he was run-of-the-mill "Third Way" politician, but he has shown himself to be a man of great character and conviction. Blair faces down parliamentary rebels over Iraq
Line of the Day: "Who will celebrate and who will weep if we take our troops back from the Gulf now?" -British Prime Minister Tony Blair, 3/18/03, to the Commons in response to critics of his Iraq policy.

Source: ThisisLondon)

Ask again later: Fed says view cloudy
And this would concern me because? Long-term Americans in Paris against war in Iraq
You know, one of the things I hate most in life is unnecessary meetings: Foreign ministers to meet Wednesday at UN on Iraq
To continue the semi-dialog between this site and James at Outside the Beltway, I think that partly why President Bush's sound bites are better than his speeches has to do with his physical demeanor when he speaks in these events sans an audience. Whenever he is trying to be somber, he tends to have a look on his face that has a somewhat stunned quality. His face can be evocative, but normally is such in less controlled situations. When he speaks in impromptu settings he tends to be more vivacious and emotive. There is also something, I think, to the fact that when he goes out to deliver a very specific message that he is overly self-conscious to do as little of the "West Texas" thing as possible. Plus he (and his advisors) have to be somewhat self-conscious about his propensity to malapropisms.

My original post on the subject is here and James' first reference on OTB is here.

Thanks to Rantburg for linking to PoliBlog.
Quite honestly, I will be pleased when the use of forces puts a stop to the things described in this piece from the London Times
Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno speaks at Brown:
After watching President Bush's address, Reno said, ''We will not solve the world's problems by might.''

She's right--force never solves anything. Except, of course, fascism. Nothing but that. Oh, and of course, it took a war to stop slavery in the United States. Ok, two exceptions. Wait--women in Afghanistan can now live free, go to school, work, etc. I think there was some violence used there as well. No rule is perfect--violence never solves anything. Wait a minute--didn't I just read that al Qaeda is collapsing? I guess we killed 'em with kindness. Oh, of course, there was that whole ethnic-cleansing thing that was stopped in Kosovo. And didn't violence remove some dictator from Kuwait a while back?

Of course, I must admit, some incidences where force was used poorly do come to mind...something about a fire outside of Waco, Texas, but the memory is vague. I do remember a nifty photo of an assualt rifle in the face of a little boy in Miami.

Gee, I wish Janet was Prez.

Um, he voted for the resolution, right? Daschle says Bush has failed `miserably'' in diplomacy, forcing America to war
"I'm saddened, saddened that this president failed so miserably at diplomacy that we're now forced to war," Daschle said in a speech to the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. "Saddened that we have to give up one life because this president couldn't create the kind of diplomatic effort that was so critical for our country."

What did he think was the likely outcome when he voted to authorize the use of force? It was pretty clear then that the likely outcome was going to be armed conflict. Further, in this case "good diplomacy" would have meant going to war with UN approval, not a peaceful solution to the Iraq situation. We didn't "fail" in our diplomacy with Iraq, as Saddam apparently wasn't in a diplomatic mood, and hasn't been for some time.

Monday, March 17

Thanks to On The Third Hand for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Speech Reaction

While the President is best in front of a live audience, he did a good job delivering the speech tonight, and I think that it said the right things. The delivery, and content, tonight was far superior to the recent press conference, and better than the Azores statement of yesterday.

I was pleased with the warnings and instructions to the Iraqi military--hopefully some of them heard it. I also thought that the statement directed at Iraqi civilians were on target. I have already cited the Line of the Day from the speech a few minutes ago, but here are some further highlights:

And all Iraqi military and civilian personnel should listen carefully to this warning: In any conflict, your fate will depend on your actions. Do not destroy oil wells, a source of wealth that belongs to the Iraqi people. Do not obey any command to use weapons of mass destruction against anyone, including the Iraqi people. War crimes will be prosecuted, war criminals will be punished and it will be no defense to say, "I was just following orders."

[...]

In this century, when evil men plot chemical, biological and nuclear terror, a policy of appeasement could bring destruction of a kind never before seen on this earth.

Terrorists and terrorist states do not reveal these threats with fair notice in formal declarations. And responding to such enemies only after they have struck first is not self defense. It is suicide.

The suicide line is quite correct--waiting for the proverbial "smoking gun" is hardly sound national security doctrine at this point (not to mention a metaphor that needs to be retired!).

Unlike Saddam Hussein, we believe the Iraqi people are deserving and capable of human liberty, and when the dictator has departed, they can set an example to all the Middle East of a vital and peaceful and self-governing nation.

There's that classical liberalism I blogged about the other day. May the Iraqi people be free soon, and I pray that this conflict goes smoothly, quickly and with as little bloodshed as possible.

Line of the Day: “The United Nations Security Council has not lived up to its responsibilities so we will rise to ours.” --President George W. Bush, 3/17/03.
Crud! I was hoping he'd only have until nigh noon tomorrow: Bush to Tell Saddam: You Have Two Days to Leave
Ryan’s comment to the Blix posting inspired a longer response, but since backblog is rather limited, I figured I’d just post it on the main blog. He notes that there are many who might argue that inspections are working. I will grant that reasonable people can disagree on this issue, I would strongly assert that inspections are not working. There are numerous reasons why I would state this. The main problem is what one believes the main task of the inspectors to be. Some believe that the inspectors really are detectives, and their job is to find WMDs and related items. If one thinks that is case, then I can see why some think that inspections are working. However, 1441 really doesn’t call for inspectors, but rather auditors—people who could verify that Saddam was cooperating and actively and completely disarming as originally required by 687 in 1991. They were supposed to go to Baghdad, and the regime was supposed to demonstrate compliance with the parade of resolutions. They were sent to verify, not seek out.

On one level, I think they have been successful—I think that they have verified that Saddam isn’t cooperating, and therefore armed disarmament is necessary. Others might claim that they have been successful because they have found some weapons, such as the al-Samoud 2 missiles (see my posting from Saturday on that one), or the drones. Hence, the pro-inspectors would argue that given enough time, the inspectors will find everything. First, I am not convinced they will find everything, (indeed, I am convinced they will not). Second, the peaceful sounding “containment” option is actually quite deadly—see Walter Russell Mead’s piece”Deadlier Than War in last Wednesday’s WaPo.

Indeed: BLIX'S WEIRD WORLD
It is clear, now, that Blix does not live in the real world. He is a resident of U.N. World.

It's a happy place, where nobody has to pay a parking ticket, where a genocide in Rwanda is ignored and where the opinions of Guinea and Angola are given real weight.

An excellent piece by an Iraqi-American in favor of the war: 'They Don't Speak for Me'
When Martin Sheen, Tim Robbins, Susan Sarandon and Barbra Streisand speak about the Iraqi people, they are not speaking about people like me, who are Shiite Muslims -- the largest religious group in Iraq that is nonetheless forced to live as second-class citizens under the Sunni regime of Hussein and his Baath Party.

[...]

I am an American now, and I have been educated to respect the right to free expression by any citizen, a right no member of my family enjoyed when we lived in Iraq. I know from personal experience that the Hollywood actors who decry action against Hussein are really opposing the liberation of the Iraqi people. I wish they would praise the American troops in the field or just stay silent.

Political (and maybe military) movement Down Under: Howard waiting on Bush to summon Australian troops
And so it begins...: Inspectors urged to leave Iraq
My thanks to Greg Goelzhauser for adding PoliBlog to his list of links.

Sunday, March 16

Line of the Day: "Tomorrow's the day that we will determine whether or not diplomacy can work," --President George W. Bush at the Azores Summit, 3/16/03.
Classic: A different kind of French kiss by Dave Barry.

(A tip of the hat to On the Third Hand)

Hey Look!: A Dick Cheney sighting! Cheney Says the U.S. Is Nearing End of Diplomatic Efforts Is it just me, or has anyone else been surprised at the Veep's low profile of late?
Worth a Read: The Kansas City Star has an excellent piece that compares 1991 and 2003: Despite some similarities, more things have changed since '91 war
A nice vocab lesson from LisaS at Boycott Hollywood

Saturday, March 15

A ScrappleFace classic: Powell Explains U.S. Belief in Fake Iraq Documents--which was especially funny since today I reecieved an extra-special, and very personal, e-mail from the daughter of Angolan rebel Jonas Savimbi, so I can understand the confusion that such documents can cause.
OK, so if the President had "Asked Nice" then everyone in the world would seen the rightness of the war? U.S. Missteps Led to Failed Diplomacy

Also, I tire of the false comparison to the Forty-One admin's coalition--kicking Saddam out of Kuwait was an easier sell. I say this not to diminish the work done by Forty-One's team, but to point out the obvious fact that the circumstances were rather significantly different.

Now, I am not saying that Forty-Three has been perfect, but the arguments in the article, which aren't very new, simply don't impress.

As I Predicted Yesterday: Dixie Chicks Find Home Not So Sweet
Worth a Read: Victor Davis Hanson piece in National Review Online And, indeed:
Nothing is worse for a great power than to ask others far less moral for permission to use its power; and nothing weakens a great power more than intervening and intruding frequently but rarely decisively. Had we simply ignored the U.N. — as Mr. Clinton did in Kosovo — and moved unilaterally last fall (like Russia and France do all the time), Saddam Hussein would be gone, and we now would have more impressed friends than we do disdainful enemies. Instead, we await China's moral condemnation of our unilateral action — this from a regime that in the last 50 years butchered more of its own citizens than any government in the history of civilization, annexed Tibet, invaded Korea and Vietnam, and threatened to annihilate Taiwan. France hysterically alleges that we will harm the city of Baghdad in its liberation, but is silent about the Russian destruction of Grozny in its subjugation. And so on.
Dickens, Spock and my Three Year-Old. A slight digression from the political for a moment. I have to admit that I have never read A Tale of Two Cities and to me it is most famous for being the book that Spock gives to Kirk on his birthday in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan (the best Trek flick ever, btw). This is a long way of saying that I am well familiar with the famous starting line of the novel: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times." Now, I have always been told that this was some clever musing about the state of Europe at the time of the novel's setting. Now, however, I have discovered what the true meaning of the text is: it is about three year-olds (and two year-olds, too). My three year old can be the sweetest, most angelic and most loving entity on planet Earth. He can also be the most hellacious, difficult and frustrating being I have ever encountered. Hence, three years of age is clearly "the best of times and the worst of times." Can I get an "amen" from the other parents out there?

And before the literary folks jump on me for my interpretation, I distinctly remember my AP Literature teacher (who had some post-modern tendencies) saying back in High School: "the author lies" and that we had to discover the meaning of the work ourselves. So there. And no, I don't plan on reading Dickens any time soon. But I might pop Wrath of Khan in the DVD player at any moment...

This is Encouraging: Bush OKs 'Interim Authority' for Post-Saddam Iraq
The transitional authority would include Iraqis from each of the country's major ethnic, tribal and religious groups, and would eventually help draft a new Iraqi constitution setting up an autonomous government.

This is smart and helps clear up some of the criticisms that have beenflying about. Clearly any new government in Iraq is going to have the have take institutional account of the different groups.

Andrew Sullivan's Sunday Times column from 3/10/03 is worth a read.

The key paragraph:

Bush's diplomatic headaches have much less to do with his own poor diplomatic skills than with the simple fact that he is trying ambitious things. Rather than simply forestall crises, postpone them, avoid them or fob them off onto others, Bush is actually doing the hard thing. He's calling for real democracy in the Middle East. He's aiming to make the long-standing U.S. policy of regime change in Iraq a reality. He actually wants to defeat Islamist terrorism, rather than make excuses for tolerating its cancerous growth. And when this amount of power is fueled by this amount of conviction, of course the world is aroused and upset.
By the way--today's the one-month anniversary (there really ought to be a better word for it than that) of PoliBlog.
The True "New" Europe

This story in today's NYT: "Schroder Offers Plan for Ending Germany's Economic Slump" is illustrative of the direction that the western European countries are going to have to go, if they want to become truly competitive with the US. Socialism, even tempered socialism, doesn't work. And countries like Germany and France cannot afford to continue to have permanent unemployment in the double-digits, especially in the context of a welfare state that incentivizes those workers to remain unemployed by providing generous, and permanent, unemployment packages.

Further, productivity will never be what it can if firms cannot fire incompetent workers.

Recalling Lots o' Resolutions


It is nothing new, but in looking for the specific language concerning ballistic missiles this morning, I came across the text of 1441. The first two paragraphs are remarkable in their listage:

Recalling all its previous relevant resolutions, in particular its resolutions 661 (1990) of 6 August 1990, 678 (1990) of 29 November 1990, 686 (1991) of 2 March 1991, 687 (1991) of 3 April 1991, 688 (1991) of 5 April 1991, 707 (1991) of 15 August 1991, 715 (1991) of 11 October 1991, 986 (1995) of 14 April 1995, and 1284 (1999) of 17 December 1999, and all the relevant statements of its President,

Recalling also its resolution 1382 (2001) of 29 November 2001 and its intention to implement it fully...

Gee, that Bush guy is sure in a rush...

And I hope we get that second resolution passed pronto!

Missile Question

Despite the much-ballyhooed destruction of the the al-Samoud 2 missiles in Iraq, it struck me this morning that despite reports that Iraq has deployed Scud missile launchers to western portions of the country to possibly use in a strikes against Israel, that there has been no discussion of the Scud program, or whether such missiles violate UN Resolutions.

According to Resolution 687, "Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless, under international supervision, of:...All ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometres and related major parts, and repair and production facilities". Now, the al-Samoud have a range of approximately 150 KM (93 miles) and is in clear violation, although granted, just barely. However, these missiles really aren't anywhere near as big a deal as are the infamous Scuds that now concern the war-planners. Indeed, the al-Samouds have been referred to as "mini-scuds" and, wouldn't be able to hit Israel, even from western Iraq, as they would be out of range:

However, Saddam's Scud aresenal has/had (it is unclear to me, and perhaps even to the DoD as to what he currently has) ranges far in excess of the 150 km prohibited by 687:

Scud Bal HusseinAl AbbasAl Hijarah
Max Range (mi.)
186373+500-560Iraq claimed 466

(source="Information Paper Iraq's Scud Ballistic Missiles"--IraqWatch)

The point of all this is primarily informative--mostly I started wondering about how the Scuds fit into the grander scheme and started doing some research. The upshot for me is that it convinces me that the al-Samoud destruction is a distraction, and it is further evidence tht Blix and Co. aren't really very serious about evaluating Iraqi compliance with UN Resolutions concering disarmament. It also mens that if Saddam is capable of Scud launches in the upcoming war, then the disarmament program was a clear failure.

Now, I am no weapons expert, so perhaps I am missing something, but it seems fairly clear that the provision from 687 cited above was primarily aimed at the Scuds and I am at a loss why the UN inspectors, and the US government, hasn't given those weapons any attention in the past six months.

Friday, March 14

This situation: Dixie Chicks Explain Anti-Bush Comment is most intersting, insofar as the Chicks are in the wrong component of the entertainment industry to make such comments. By this I mean that country music fans tend to be fairly conservative, and, I suspect, pro-war. These particular comments (especially to fans in Texas, who tend to be rather pro-Bush) are likely to offend their direct fan base--something not true in the case of Martin Sheen or Chrissie Hynde, for example. That is to say that a lot of the West Wing's fan trend in the liberal direction, and rock fans are used to rebellious talk from their artists. Neither is true of your typical country music fan.
Slate has the low-down on the MOAB, which is less hyberbolic than the initial reporting.
You Can't Make This Stuff Up

Cameroon's Health Minister notes that 'Urine is bad for you'.

Cameroon's health minister on Thursday warned people against drinking their own urine, believed in some circles to be a tonic and cure for a number of ailments.

"Given the risks of toxicity associated in the short, medium and long term with ingesting urine, the health ministry advises against the consumption of urine and invites those who promote the practice to cease doing so forthwith or risk prosecution," Health Minister Urbain Olanguena Awono said in a statement.

And this is one of the countries whose Security Council vote we covet?

This story is also noted in the NYT's

(Also thanks to the Michael Medved show)

Forget All that Stuff About Power: Let's Watch SpongeBob at the Baghdad DisneyWorld!

New Age guru Deepak Chopra has suggested 10 ways to avoid war in Iraq. Two of my favs:

5. Offer MTV, CNN and Nickelodeon free to any Iraqi household with a TV exposure to the world will make them feel like part of the world.

10. Open a Disney World somewhere in the Middle East, where up to half the population is under the age of 15. These children are in enormous peril, not just from bombs, but from cultural isolation. Let children breathe free air at a place where fun and joy abide. What better way to reduce fear and anger? At the same time, find a way to expose American children to the children of the world.

(A tip of the hat to the Michael Medved show for bringing this to my attention.)

More on Power and the International Arena

This really makes no sense:

"We need to be creating a world that we would like to live in when we're not the biggest power on the block." (Bill Clinton in a speech given at the 92nd Street YMCA in NYC on 3/13/03)

So, while I understand he is arguing that we should respect the UN and strengthen it now, so that when we are weaker that we can rely on it, I would submit that he wholly misunderstands the international arena (or, more likely, that he is being disingenuous for political reason, since as President he was quite willing to ignore the UN and act unilaterally).

Still, the premise is remarkable--the idea that if the US diminishes and a new superpower emerges, that somehow that this new superpower is going to be constrained by how the US acted when it was the power. "Gee, we were going to behave in a hegemonic fashion," says the new SuperPower, "but the US acquiesced to the UN back in '03, so I guess we will, too, even though such an action is against our national interest..." This is utterly ridiculous and ignores the very definition of a superpower. As I pointed out earlier today (see "Power and International Law" below), superpowers act because they can--it is the very essence of what makes them a "super"power. The idea that any new great power in the future will be constrained by what the US does, or does not do, is silly and ignores the way history has progressed to date.

Congrats to OTB! For being referenced in WaPo:
Blogging For War

A powerful component of the pro-war movement is blogs, or online Web logs and diaries. One blog, Outside the Beltway, features a number of stories and postings on the pending war and links to scores of other like-minded blogs...

Congrats to the Skeptician as well!
Power and International Law

The following UPI story raises the question Is a war against Iraq legal?

Several issues occur to me in response to the question posed. The first is: if one is going the international law route it seems to me that 1441 is sufficient grounds for action. Indeed, I think a cogent argument can be made that Saddam's violations of the 1991 cease fire agreements are sufficient grounds for action.

The second, and more fundamental, is that international law is "law" only if those functioning under it agree to follow its tenets. In other words, and to steal from Thomas Hobbes, given that there is no power to overawe those who are supposed to follow international law, following international law is a voluntary enterprise, unlike domestic law, which is wholly enforceable by the police power of the state.

Like it or not, believe it to be right or not, it is uncontrovertibly the case that the main guarantor of international law is the Unites States, given that it is currently the sole superpower in the world. Even in the bipolar world of the Cold War, the US often could (and did) ignore international law with impunity. This is an empirical fact. One can make whatever normative judgments one wishes as to the rightness and wrongness of the actions. Indeed, it is worth noting, by way of example, is the fact that any actual enforcement of the UN’s "will" always relies on the United States.

In sum: the only reason to follow international law (for any state, not just the US) is if following international law is in the national interest of the state in question, or if a more powerful state can force a given state to follow international law. Therefore, it may make for an intriguing intellectual argument to state that any war against Iraq, but it is an argument on paper—it will stop nothing.

May there be consequences of going into a conflict that other states may view as "illegal"?--potentially yes. Other states could be uncooperative, or seek not to do business with the United States, but the question still becomes whether other states can afford to engage in such activities. The bottom line is most states cannot. Again, the power of the US makes it possible for it to ignore international law, if it deems it necessary, and further, the power of the US ameliorates the effects of such actions. As such, the question of whether the action is "legal" or not is largely irrelevant.

Line of the Day: "I can't imagine anyone voting for me at this point," (Talk Show Host and potential Senate Candidate, Jerry Springer). Source

Thursday, March 13

Thanks to Paxety's Pages for recommending PoliBlog.
Evidence that getting the war over with will help the economy: Stocks Rally on Speculation of Short War
You Want Evidence that the UN Simply Wants to Check the US? Here you go: Opposition to Britain's Iraq Plan Brings New Diplomatic Flurry
Indeed: Portugal: U.S. 'best way' to have security
Foreign Minister Antonio Martins da Cruz told state radio that if Portugal were attacked, "it would be unlikely France and Germany would come to our rescue."

[...]

He said: "Let us suppose Portugal, proper or its archipelagos, faced a threat, who would come to our rescue? The European Commission, France, Germany?

"I think it would be NATO who would come to our rescue, in other words, it would be the U.S (emphasis added by PoliBlogger)., no one else would defend us. For instance, during the 1996 mission in Bosnia, operations took place with the support of 20 satellites, of which only one was European," and the remainder belonged to the U.S.

"If we were attacked, is that what they would offer to defend us? How curious is this: in Bosnia, when we were called to send soldiers urgently to that region, the U.S. had C-17 and C-130 planes, and France leased ferry boats, which during the summer are employed in tourist services to Corsica.

"Is this how we are supposed to project our forces in Europe? Are they planning to defend us with ferry boats? I cannot envisage the European Commission protecting us from an attack in which highly developed weapons were employed," the foreign minister said.

(Another tip of the hat to Random Nuclear Strikes)

Oh, brother: NYC Council Approves Anti-War Resolution
The City Council in the place hit hardest by the Sept. 11 attacks approved a resolution Wednesday opposing war with Iraq except as a last resort.

The 31-17 vote came after months of debate over whether New York should stake out a position.

"If we're going to be looking for a fight, let's fight poverty, let's fight firehouse closures, let's fight racism and sexism," said Yvette Clarke, a Democrat who supported the resolution

I have always thought it rather silly when city councils weigh in on topics of foreign policy. And I must remind Councilwoman Clarke, that we fought a "war" on poverty, and apparently lost.

(A tip of the hat to Random Nuclear Strikes)

Utterly bizarre: 'Vice' or price? TV star Don Johnson car-shopping with $8 billion to spend. I heard the story on Fox News yesterday, and a tip of the hat to Dave Berry's blog for reminding me.
Thanks to DaghtatorBlog for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Save Me from Historians Who Think They Are Political Scientists

The following transcript comes for the Media Research Center's CyberAlert daily e-mail.

"MRC analyst Jessica Anderson took down some of the comments
made by Goodwin on the March 12 Imus in the Morning radio show simulcast on MSNBC:"

Don Imus: "According to Maureen Dowd this morning, Ari Fleischer, in a White House press briefing, suggested that if the United Nations didn't get on board here, that they would be replaced with another international body."

Goodwin: "Oh yeah, that's wonderful, I mean, FDR's dream coming out of World War II to create the United Nations, which is such an important institution -- I mean, it's just going to sound to the world like we're bullying…

PoliBlogger: You know, whether FDR had a dream or not, that does not convey moral authority to the institution. It seems that often historians, especially presidential historians, fall in love (after a fashion) with their subject of study and romanticize their policies and goals. Of what possible relevance is it that FDR wanted X or Y? It is a non-argument. And even if the world thinks we are bullying, that doesn't get to the heart of the matter either--again, it is a non-argument.

Back to Goodwin: "...what happens when the war becomes a crusade, you know, it becomes right and wrong. Lincoln understood, even in the Civil War, that God was not so intimate to our will, you know, that somehow, even though we believed in God, you couldn't be sure God was on your side, as it seems that Mr. Bush is...

PoliBlogger: Again with the historical references as if such a reference constitutes an argument. And I am also tired of the argument that somehow Bush is making policy from some voice in his head. Just because someone believes in God, and believes that there is right and wrong in the universe as a result of said belief, does not mean that they believe that they are acting as God's agent and that God endorses all that is done. Indeed, the general discussion of Bush's religiosity has been rather ad hominem in that it really does not get to the issue of whether Bush is correct about their being good and evil, but rather simply suggests that the President is a bit kooky.

The only times that President has, to my recollection, made claims about God's perspective on these issues, it has been to say things like God wouldn't endorse suicide bombing, or flying airplanes full of civilians into buildings full of the same. He has hardly come out and said that in God's Names we go to war. That would be the Islamofascists.

Back to Goodwin: "It's scary to think about the war, the Civil War too, because of all these predictions that we have now that it'll be over in a couple of days and the rosy picture that Mr. Bush has created of what will happen in the Middle East, the Secretary of State under Lincoln predicted that the Civil War would last 60 days, and of course it lasted four years with more than 600,000 lives, which is equivalent to five million today. So I take these predictions with a grain of salt....

PoliBlogger: This is an excellent illustration of historians playing political scientists on TV—the parallels between the two wars go no further than this: they were both wars, and both had predictions made about them. That's it.

May it be so:
U.S. officials told CNN Wednesday that "secret surrender" negotiations have begun with key Iraqi military officials in hopes some military units will not fight U.S. and coalition forces should there be a war.

Although one wonders if this is the kind of thing we want in the press. Although I suppose that it could be a way of communicating with other commanders who might be interested in switching.

And gee, I wonder who this is referring to?

Communications with these Iraqi military officials are not being handled by the Pentagon, but instead by other "elements" of the U.S. government, the officials said.

Source: CNN.com

Speaking of Time, their profile of General Tommy Franks is worth a read. It is surpringsly positive, given that Time hasn't exactly been pro-war. Although there are some digs at Rumsfeld.
What must 215 be Like?: Time magazine has a small snippet in the latest issue which notes that Baghdad ranks 213 out the 215 best cities in the world (Zurich was #1).
Thanks to Judicious Asininity for Blogrolling PoliBlog.

Wednesday, March 12

David Frum of AEI asks a relevant question, and makes some key points:
Why, after all, do French opinions about Iraq matter more than those of, say, Italy or Brazil? If wealth is the measure of national importance, France ranks behind the State of California; if it's military strength, France barely makes it into the top 10, rather behind Israel. Americans are transfixed by French opinions only because the United States submitted its case to a body where, by an accident of history, the French happen to wield disproportionate power. If France wields that power in a hostile manner, no American president will ever return to that body again.

I am especially taken with the phrase "accident of history" as on many levels, there is no logical reason, aside from history, for France to be in the position it is in. Japan, for example, is a more significant power in the world than is France. For that matter, I would rather see India on the council instead of France (as per Thomas Friedman's suggest in the NYT on February 9, 2003).

Source: AEI - News & Commentary and a tip of the hat to Judicious Asininity, where I first saw the ref to the story.

I must admit, I wholeheartedly agree with Andrew Sullivan on this.
My thanks to politX for the link.
Line of the Day 2: "The American people, not the United Nations, is the only body that President Bush has sworn to represent."--Senator John McCain today's NYT

(A tip of the hat to Max at Common Sense and Wonder)

You know you have had trouble in tha past, when this is a national headline: Broward Co., Fla. Sees Smooth Local Vote
Here's an interesting commentary from a professor in South Africa. It argues that it is in South Africa's interest for the Security Council to find a way to agree on the Iraq situation. Indeed, one would think that it is in the interest of various countries of the world to pressure France and friends into a compromise with the US, because this impasse is going to damage what little power the UN has, and, by extension, the influence of lesser powers. It is clear, as William F. Buckley's recent column points out the UN does not have the power to check the US, so the route that France is currently pursuing is going to simply curtail its own long-term power and influence, as it will demonstrate the utter impotence of the Security Council (indeed, I made this point myself over a week ago here.)

I continue to marvel at the French position—why not just stand aside and declare basic neutrality on the issue? Why force this confrontation with the United States? Why place themselves in the position of furthering the goals of Saddam?

I can hardly wait. Can I pre-order the DVD now? Travolta Talking 'Harvey' Remake
Even though a director has not been set, the studios have begun talks with Travolta to play the role of Elwood P. Dowd, an amiable drunk who pals around with a 6-foot-tall invisible rabbit named Harvey.
The Parade of Futility Doth Continue...

Well, in the ongoing (and I supect, futile) quest for a UN resolution, the British have proposed some new conditions for Iraq:

_ A television appearance by Saddam renouncing weapons of mass destruction.

Um, how would this help? Didn't the Iraqi parliament already outlaw WMDs? Didn't Saddam proclaim that everyone should cooperate with the inspectors? Didn't Saddam tell Rather that they didn't have any such weapons?

_ Iraq's permission for 30 key weapons scientists to travel to Cyprus to be interviewed by U.N. weapons inspectors.

Ok, but what about their families? And aren't they supposed to be doing this anyway?

_ The destruction "forthwith" of 10,000 liters of anthrax and other chemical and biological weapons Iraq is suspected of holding.
They claim not to have this stuff—and wasn't full and immediate disclosure the point of 1441?!?

_ The surrender of and explanation about biological weapons production.
Wasn't that essentially the whole point of 1441 and that bogus declaration last December?

_ A commitment to destroy proscribed missiles.
The Iraqis will claim that they are doing so.

_ An accounting for unmanned aerial vehicles.
Aren't they supposed to be doing this? And hasn’t it been demonstrated that they have been actively hiding such programs?
Line of the Day: "Walk away, Mr. President...You can convert to Islam in a Parisian mosque and it won't prevent a French veto."--Charles Krauthammer, WaPo, 3/12/03

Tuesday, March 11

This headline is fairly amazing: Iraq Urges UN States to Head Off Looming US Attack. So now the job of the UN is to check the US, at the behest of Iraq. Remarkable.
Really, this is getting ridiculous: U.S., Britain May Extend Iraq Deadline
I know this is widespread in the Blogosphere, but I have to admit, I love the name: US Tests 'Mother of All Bombs' in Florida
The Limits of Multilateralism...

Kofi Annan says that "an attack on Iraq would be a violation of the U.N. Charter if it does not have the support of the Security Council" (according to CNN)

Oh my, I guess that means that force will have to be used against the US, to make them comply. Call up the UN troops...What's that? The US historically supplies all the force behind the UN? What a conundrum!

Line of the Day:
"I'd ask folks to think about the Marshall Plan a bit and get back to me."
Rejoinder by actor Vince Vaughn, to those he encountered in England who denounced America (Source: Media Research Center).
Indeed: "A man with an $27m bounty on his head tends to choose his friends carefully."

And you have to love this:

Source:BBC

Thanks to Beatniksalad for the link.
One does begin to wonder if there is a method to this madness or not: Bush Will Push U.N. for Iraq Vote This Week
Classical Liberal Freedoms and the Iraqi Experiment: A Brief Essay

The war that is coming has within it a test of the fundamental tenet of classic liberalism: that the natural state for human beings is liberty. Rousseau wrote that “man is born free; and everywhere he is in chains” (The Social Contract) and while I have issues with his solution to this problem (I would argue that Rousseau’s work has totalitarian overtones), I would concur with the basic idea that the natural state of humanity is one of freedom and liberty. As Locke noted, men are born into “a state of perfect freedom to order their actions, and dispose of their possessions and persons, as they think fit, within the bounds of the law of nature, without asking leave, or depending upon the will of any other man” (The Second Treatise of Government). These types of assumption, often unconscious, under gird American political culture and American political thought. And while I will freely grant this is not the primary purpose, nor the main motivator for the conflict, as national security lays claim to those titles, I would point out that the calls for the liberation of the people of Iraq are not hollow sloganeering. We do, fundamentally, believe that humans ought to be free..

Indeed, success in this war is based on the core belief that human beings, including the citizen of Iraq, desire freedom, and that freedom is the birth-right of all. There is a belief at the center of policy-making in Washington that the US military will be greeted and celebrated by the Iraqi people as liberators, not conquerors. Success, after the bombing stops, is based on this assumption that the people of Iraq want to be free, will welcome being free, and will able to act freely once the tyrant has been removed.

As such, the coming conflict is a great experiment in the question of what human beings are born to. It is a grave experiment, one that will be furthered by violence, and hence not to be taken lightly. This is not a sterile, controlled event that can be reset if problems arise.

Of course, freedom has its own problems, not the least of which is that humans are self-interested, and often use freedom to seek after the wants of self, rather than of the community (see Hobbes and Hume, amongst others).

And democracy, per se, does not solve all these problems. Mill notes (in On Liberty) that: “[t]he will of the people , moreover, practically means the will of the most numerous or the most active part of the people: the majority, or those who succeed in making themselves accepted as the majority…” and those in such positions can abuse power as easily as a tyranny of one.

So, even if the experiment in liberty is successful, a second experiment will unfold, and that will be finding a way to structure the relationships among free peoples, Kurds, Shiites, Sunni and so forth, in an institutional structure that both promotes freedom and dulls the impulse to solely self-interested behavior.

This entire affair is, as Thomas Friedman has noted, a major gamble. I concur it is a gamble worth taking, and one that has potentially very positive results. However, it is a monumental undertaking, the scope of which has not been fully appreciated by many observing the events that are unfolding. The events of the next several months are going to set the stage (indeed, the turmoil in the UN is already setting the stage) for international relations for decades to come.

Interesting: Growing Number in U.S. Back War, Survey Finds. The part that catches my eye is growing impatience with the UN:
The poll found that 58 percent of Americans said the United Nations was doing a poor job in managing the Iraqi crisis, a jump of 10 points from a month ago. And 55 percent of respondents in the latest poll would support an American invasion of Iraq, even if it was in defiance of a vote of the Security Council.

And, given the economy, this is also interesting:

But with Mr. Bush continuing to enjoy a relatively high approval rating in this poll --56 percent-- it is clear that his presidency is being judged largely by his conduct of foreign affairs and the potential war.

And while a majority, 52%, still think the inspectors should be given more time, that number is down from 62%. It is amusing, however, that the NYT story mentions this data twice in the text:

  • But a majority of respondents, 52 percent, say inspectors should be given more time to search for evidence of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons on the ground in Iraq.
  • Although a majority of respondents still support giving weapons inspectors more time, that number has decreased to 52 percent from 62 percent two weeks ago.

And statements like this make me realize that some folks live in FantasyLand:

"As far as the United Nations goes, I feel it is the last hope of our humanity, our last hope of order," said Allan Gold, 81, of Lynbrook, N.Y., a Democrat. "I think they have to be in charge of our decisions. If the weapons inspectors have more time, they may uncover something dangerous."

For one thing, the inspectors have uncovered "something dangerous" and it is clear Saddam is trying to hide other dangerous somethings. Further, how (and this is the key question) is the UN going to maintain order? Further, I would argue that this war has the potential to foster long-term order, while sitting around hoping for the best will likely foster long-term chaos.

Monday, March 10

Comedy of an Era


The fact that this entire affair has somehow come down to Angola, Cameroon and Guinea (at least on one level) is remarkable in its ludicrousness. While it is evident that there will be war regardless of the vote (assuming there is one at this point), it is a spectacle of the post Cold War era that these thing countries are relevant in any way to vital US foreign policy.

The very fact that we are going to these lengths to play the international law/multilateral game ought quash all arguments that Bush is a reckless cowboy.

Point-PatheticPoint

Ugh--I just heard audio of yesterday's 60 Minutes segment with Clinton and Dole, and "moribund" would be too cheery a word to describe the presentation. I hope CBS enjoyed the ratings this week, because I can't imagine that they will last.

Of course they wouldn't burn the oil field, I mean where would we get that idea?
"Iraq is keen to defend its oil wells and it is illogical that we burn our oil wells with our own hands," Oil Undersecretary Hussein Suleiman Al-Hadithi told Reuters.

Source: U.S. Sees Signs Iraq Has Explosives at Oil Fields

Saletan's piece in Slate is quite good. And, indeed:
Should the United States yield to the United Nations? The question makes no sense. The United States practically invented the United Nations. Franklin D. Roosevelt coined its name. The U.N. charter was drafted and debated here. We host the organization's headquarters and fund the lion's share of its budget. Other members are important, but the United Nations needs us a lot more than we need it. Fischer is asking us not to put our national interests ahead of an organization we built to advance our national interests.
The Formerly Bow-Tied One Hath a Point
George Will said, "France has stopped being an ally."

"Their foreign minister is in Africa working up opposition to an American policy," said Will, referring to French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin's trip to African Security Council members Guinea, Cameroon and Angola. "That's not what an ally does."

Source: ABCNEWS.com : Analysis: High Stakes at the U.N.

Line of the Day: "Unfortunately, there are some members of the council, and many people in the world, who thought that 1441 was just words. It wasn’t words. It was a statement of principle. Saddam Hussein is guilty."

--U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell (MTP, 3/9/03)

The Wit and Wisdom of Peter Jennings
"We're going to begin this evening with the Bush administration and its allies. It is quite clear in Washington tonight that the administration is prepared to jeopardize its relations with several of its oldest and best friends in order to get its way about Iraq."

--ABC's Peter Jennings introducing the February 19 World News Tonight.

I find it more striking that many of our oldest allies are willing to endanger their relationship with us to protect (even if that is not the stated goal, it is the result) a totalitarian (not a word I use lighlty) dictator.

Source: Research Center

Gee, I'm sorry I missed it.
I suppose that this story (U.S. Says Iraq Retools Rockets for Illicit Uses) illustrates that perception is affected by preconceived notions. Were I a weapons inspector in Iraq, finding hidden missiles designed to deliver chemical or biological weapons would give me pause, especially considering, as the story points out, that they were either hidden from inspectors during the prior inspection regime, or developed since 1998. However, to Blix, France, and friends, they are relatively harmless violations. This disconnect is startling.

And, really:

According to the detailed report by the inspection team, which was circulated at the United Nations during the Security Council's debate on a new resolution to authorize the use of force against Iraq, Baghdad has a long history of exploring novel approaches for chemical and biological weapons.

If the weapons are just defensive, and meant to deter the aggression of others, then keeping them secret is hardly helpful, so it makes one wonder why the Iraqi would want these weapons. It appears to me to indicate aggressive intentions. Hiding such devices hardly qualifies for innocent mistakes in inventory. If the Iraqis are simply interested in being able to defend themselves, then the logical thing to have done would have been to fully cooperate, use the monies dedicated to these chemical and bio weapons on conventional arms, and then, once the UN was fully off its back, do what they want. Instead they obfuscate and obstruct.

Sunday, March 9

Hmm, I think that I could think of a few things...
Iraq Doing Utmost to Avert War, Official Says The Iraqi government believes there is nothing more it can do to avert a war with the United States, Iraq's chief liaison to the U.N. weapons inspectors said tonight.
Meet Gary Hart, master of the false dichotomy (indeed, dichotomies, as he presents several in the first portion of the column. Not to mention that he clearly doesn't have cable, the internet, or a newspaper subscription at his current residence, as he has missed all the recent, rather intense, al Qaeda-fighting (and victories) the past week or so.

If this is a prelude to a presidential bid, let me save Mr. Hart time and money and give him some free advice: you aren't going to win the nomination, let alone the presidency, so best to find something better to do with your time.

Is this the very definition of chutzpah, or what?
Glossing over the negative aspects of the latest report by the weapons inspectors, a government statement issued from a meeting presided over by Saddam Hussein and editorials in the government-controlled press all reached the same conclusion: that Iraq had been declared sufficiently free of weapons of mass destruction to warrant the cancellation of sanctions imposed after the 1991 Persian Gulf war.

And further, does this not demostrate that the obstructionism by France and friends is actually bolstering the confidence of Saddam, rather than promoting peace?

Some would decry this as an example of the unfair monopoly of power by the major parties:
The New York Liberal Party, billed by members as the longest existing third party in the nation, has shut down after nearly 60 years of helping to elect candidates from John F. Kennedy to Rudolph Giuliani.

The Liberal Party failed to collect the 50,000 votes it needed in November's gubernatorial race to maintain its status as a recognized party. As a result, the party lost its automatic ballot slots in New York.

But if you can't manage the 50,000 votes needed in a state the size of New York, then that tells me that the party doesn't have enough support to warrant its own existence. And really, the party only has existed as long as it has because New York state allows vote-pooling, so to be nominated by the Dems and the Libs meant all the votes counted together, so the degree to which the Liberals were a true third party in those elections in which is nominated the same candidate as the Dems (or, the case of Giuliani, the Reps) is questionable.

Intriguing: Election in Turkey Clears Way for Erdogan to Take Formal Control
Governing party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a seat in parliament by a huge margin Sunday, a crucial victory that opens the way for him to become prime minister and strengthens his hand in uniting the government behind deployment of U.S. troops for an Iraq war.

And especially interesting is the fact is that that Erdogan's party, the Justice and Development Party, is an Islamic-oriented political movement, which demostrates that 1) those whose religion is Islam can function in a democratic civil society, and 2) an Islamically-oriented political party can work in alliance with the United States.

Doing for sports what The Onion does for news: SportsPickle.com--check it out.

Saturday, March 8

Well, it does appear that the US can walk (fight al Qaeda) and chew gum (prepare for war in Iraq): US captures seven in Afghanistan.

Not to sound too cynical, but I wonder how long before some Dem charges that the only reason that we are focusing on al Qaeda right now is to make the President look good so he can launch a war on Iraq?

Intriguing: Officials Narrow Bin Laden Search to Caravan although I remain skeptical until we actually have him in custody. It strikes me as odd that somehow we would be tracking him and the information would make it to ABCnews.com, especially after all the "we have his sons"/"no we don't"/"maybe we do" business since yesterday.
Gee whiz, this alone is enough to convince me that the Blix report is less than convincing:
[The] Iraqi newspaper Babel - which is run by President Saddam Hussein's son Uday - says the reports by the weapons inspectors were "fair".

Not to mention:

The dossier details the weapons of mass destruction Iraq may still possess:
  • Up to 10,000 litres of anthrax
  • Scud missile warheads fitted with deadly biological and chemical agents
  • Pilot-less aircraft, or "drones", that intelligence reports say far exceed the 150 kilometre (93 mile) limit allowed by the UN

As OTB pointed out this morning, the lack of mention of the drones in Blix's oral presentation is something of a signifincant omission.

Source: the BBC

My thanks to A Small Victory and SpiffyWaffer for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Max Abrahms has a good piece on United Nations at NRO.

Upon reading this piece I find that I am further bolstered in my own thoughts on the subject: that the only function the UN really plays right now is for the less powerful states to pressure/affect the United States, and/or use it as a means of wringing concessions out of the US in exchange for cooperation (or at least no obstuction) for what the US wants to do, and could otherwise do by itself anyway. The idea that they are pursing the "will of the international community" is plain silly. Heck, the US Congress doesn't really pursue the "will of the American people," but rather the compromise position of 535 individuals representing myriad interests, and its members are a whole lot more on the same page than are the members of the UN. Indeed, compromise is often impossible in the UN context, and hence the problems we see whenever the Security Council has to actually do something serious. In interanational affairs it is often necessary to resort to force, and that is something that makes compromise difficult.

These kinds of reports are annoying: $1.82T Shortfall Predicted in Bush Budget, not for political reasons, but for methodological ones. While I understand the need to make projections, to pretend as if they are written in stone is problematic. We really don't know what the next ten years will bring budget-wise, and therefore the usefulness of such projections for policy-making as anything more than a general guideline is highly questionable . If one were to go back and find similar projections in the early 1990s, one would find that the projections were for deficits as far as the eye could see. No one predicted the boom of the 90s, and no one knows what will happen in the next 10 years, so posturing based on these projections is either willful ignorance, or disingenuousness.

On a political front, I think that the main solution to deficits is economic growth, and that restructuring elements of the tax code, like the double-taxation on dividends, will spur growth, and hence result in more money in the treasury.

Funny how the Iraqis can find document when they want to
ElBaradei's report yesterday all but ruled out the use of the tubes in a nuclear program. The IAEA chief said investigators had unearthed extensive records that backed up Iraq's explanation. The documents, which included blueprints, invoices and notes from meetings, detailed a 14-year struggle by Iraq to make 81mm conventional rockets that would perform well and resist corrosion. Successive failures led Iraqi officials to revise their standards and request increasingly higher and more expensive metals, ElBaradei said.(from WaPo)

I must admit that I remain unconvinced that the falsification of two pieces of evidence means that Saddam has totally abandoned his nuclear ambitions. Although I will also say that said ambitions aren't the best argument for war, anyway, as the chemical and bio weapons are an immediate threat.

Friday, March 7

Line of the Day (ok, actually yesterday, but who's counting?): Commenting on Bill Clinton's signing with CBS to revive "Point/Counterpoint" on 60 Minutes, Bob Garfield of NPR's On the Media said the following:
"It's potentially extremely degrading to the presidency, but of course, that a pantry that President Clinton has been in before." --Said on All Things Considered (3/6/03).
Hmm, and I thought that the Arab Street was supposed to increasingly turn on us as we approached war . Rather, according to this story, "Saddam's popularity among Arab masses may be waning"
Saddam once was applauded as a hero who stood up to the United States when no other Arab leader would. Today, Arabs increasingly portray him as a reckless despot who is not doing enough to save his people or his neighbors from a conflagration, and who has taken the region to war twice before.
As Mickey Kaus points out this may be some evidence to support the "Strong Horse Theory" (a theory that I subscribe to, by the way).
Congrats to Boycott Hollywood for the following formulatio: "Hans Blix is the Judge Ito of the United Nations." It has a certain ring to it, doesn't it?
An interesting piece in The New Republic Online about Mike Farrell's Sunday appearance on MTP. Overall it demonstrates well the ineptitude of Mr. Farrell. (Although the article's gratuitous worship of Marin Sheen is a tad odd).
This story, from today's WaPo raises an ongoing issue (discussed by James at OTB recently)--the idea many are proffering not an argument against war, per se, just an argument about who supports us. I concur with OTB--this is a weak position, to say the least.
In separate Capitol Hill appearances a few hours before Bush's prime-time news conference, Senate Minority Leader Thomas A. Daschle (D-S.D.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it would be premature to invade Iraq without trying to win broader international support.

I mean, what's the important issue here: whether the war and its aims are justified or not (i.e., whether there are a moral and national interest arguments to support the action), or is it simply a question of how many people agree with us? I find it questionable that the best test for the worthiness of public policy is how many people agree with you. To quote your Mother: "If everyone was jumping off a bridge, would you do it too?"

I am willing to risk short-term "isolation" (Daschle's whines in the story that "The situation has put us in a more isolated position than I ever anticipated") if the policy is the right thing to do. I suspect that once we are succesful, much of the "isolation" will end. And even if some of our "allies" remain aloof, I still think that pursuing the right policy in terms of US national interests trumps making nice with people who are worried about their interests, not ours. (And yes, shockingly, France, Germany, Russia, China, et al. act out of self-interest as well).

Electoral Shocker! Castro gets sixth term unopposed

(Tip of the hat to: Max Jacobs at Common Sense & Wonder)
While I must confess to being initially not all that impressed with the President’s press conference last night I have noted something interesting since: while the overall presentation last night was rather ho-hum, that his responses have made terrific sound bites. I saw several clips last night on TV before going to sleep and heard several on NPR this morning driving into work. His responses sound reasonable, thought out, and calm. Further, they convey specific ideas in short snippets of audio/video.

Also, I think that the following was accomplished:

  • He unequivocally informed the Securtity Council that A) he expected them to vote, and B) that he was going to proceed regardless. This sets the tone for the Blix presentation today and the vote on the 18th resolution.
  • He may have reached some folks who really aren’t paying attention—people who will watch an “unusual” event like a prime time news conference (not news junkies like me who knew all this stuff weeks ago).
  • I think that the event helps set the stage for the next prime time stop he makes: the announcement that hostilities have begun.
  • As a colleague pointed out this morning, the somber mood was likely an effort to counter-act the cowboy image/rush to war thesis.

At any rate, I would reiterate that you should all pay attention to the sound bites and reevaluate the way one looks at the press conference through those lenses. I think that that aspect of the event was masterfully played by the White House. This is an especially salient point when one considers that most people will get their impressions from the sound bites, as most folks don’t watch these things, and even if they tune it, they don’t watch the whole thing.

Thursday, March 6

This is just frightening for some reason:

Now, if the DNC can just find this "Unnamed Democrat" dude, and if they can keep national conditions the same through November 2004, they're set: Poll Shows Bush Would Lose to Democrat in Election
Not surprising: Republicans Lose Senate Test Vote on Estrada, although unfortunate. Here are the basics:
On Thursday, four Democrats joined all 51 Senate Republicans in voting to end debate and move to confirmation.

Forty-three Senate Democrats and one independent, James Jeffords of Vermont, voted against it. Sen. Bob Graham, a Florida Democrat recovering from heart surgery, did not vote.

The four Senate Democrats who crossed the political aisle in support of Estrada were: Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Zell Miller of Georgia and John Breaux of Louisiana.

And I fear this is correct:

The battle is seen as a possible dress rehearsal for Bush's first U.S. Supreme Court nominee...

I continue to maintain that while the Dems have the legit right to use the rules in this fashion, that they are nonetheless damaging the nomination process, given that they have given no plausible reason to justify their actions.

Still a microbe, but up to the ominous 666 (from 832 yesterday) at The Truth Laid Bear Blogosphere Ecosystem. If only I could make it up to Multicellular Microorganisms!
ScrappleFace has made an amazing discovery: Study: Human Shields Fail to Deter Islamic Militants
You would think that Bay area libs would be happy: SF Bay area gas prices reach new record, I mean, aren't the libs always saying we should be more like Europe?

And gee, who's fault is this?

California usually has higher gas prices than most other states because the state has higher fuel taxes and requires a special blend of lower-smog fuel. Nationally, gas prices averaged $1.68 Tuesday, according to AAA. The record is $1.72, set on May 15, 2001.
More info on the changes to the presidential nomination landscape:
As many as 12 states may hold primaries or caucuses next February, party officials said today, taking advantage of a new Democratic Party rule that permits the contests to begin one week after the New Hampshire primary, which is Jan. 27. In 2000, there was not a single major Democratic primary or caucus in the month after New Hampshire.

With the new rules for 2004, Democratic officials said, they were trying to devise a fast-paced schedule that would produce an early nominee, spare their candidate the expensive and debilitating rigors of a prolonged nominating battle and impose order on a famously unruly system.

States who are late in the game, are really going to be out of it now...which makes one think that further compression is likely. It is also interesting that a highly compressed schedule, mixed with a large number of candidates, actually increases the chances of convention-level conflicts. It also means, therefore, that the pre-primary season is key, and that the goal is to be a front-runner well before January of 2004. This really does have the potential of seriously restructuring campaign strageties.

Further, the money angle is interesting. Not only is it noteworthy (although by no means surprising), that campaign-finance issues are driving part of the decision-making, but the earlier the primaries take place, the sooner candidates have to have lot of cash. Compression of the primaries will make it harder for candidates who do not already have tons of cash, to be able to mount a credible campaign. Undecided folks and late-comers, such as Sen. Graham, or especially ,Wesley Clark, may almost certainly too late at this point. Indeed, I suspect that some of the folks who have announced, are already too late.

Don't forget to toss in your two cents on the Big "I" Award
Neat trick, if you can pull it off: Bin Laden dead AND alive
Ya know, the thing about suicide troops is that you can only use them once...

Wednesday, March 5

Drudge is reporting that "CBS NEWS plans to revive commentary segment 'Point/Counterpoint' on 60 MINUTES -- With Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, beginning this Sunday night, newsroom sources say!". Boy, I can hardly wait.
Thanks to John Lemon of John Lemon's Barrel of Fish, another Blog by a conservative political science prof, for his plug of PoliBlog.
My thanks to You are Skewed for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Courtesy the joke section of Pavefrance.com
"You know why the French don't want to bomb Saddam Hussein? Because he hates America, he loves mistresses and wears a beret. He is French, people." --Conan O'Brien
The amazing thing is that, according to their counter, they have had almost 320,000 visitors: Cheese Racing (via Dave Barry)
For those who enjoy both Monty Python and making fun of the Human Shields. (via RWN)
The Big "I" Awards

I am instituting a new award, to be given as needed, to be known as the Big "I" (as in idiot) Award.

The current nominees are:

  • Chrissie Hynde:
    Between songs, the pugnacious Hynde… opined that she hopes the United States loses if it goes to war with Iraq ("Bring it on! Give us what we deserve!"),
  • The Human Shields stuck in Beirut:
    Two red double decker buses and a white London taxi that ferried anti-war activists to Baghdad to serve as "human shields" are stranded in Beirut with their owner short of the $5,500 it costs to ship them home.
  • The New Zealand woman who wants Bush to Crucify Here:
    A woman in New Zealand says she wants President Bush to understand the kind of pain and suffering a war with Iraq would cause.

    She wants Bush to crucify her -- on live television.

  • The Woman who thinks that being human shields would make a great class project
    Political science, religious studies, sociology and global studies classes in colleges and universities might consider participating in the human shield as a course project for those who are willing.

Vote via the Comments link (and yes, I know it is a hard choice).

Interesting:
U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said on Wednesday Iraq had been proactive recently in helping inspectors but he would not want to extend inspections on that basis because Baghdad's past track record had not been good.

(story here)

Where does Powell get this stuff?:

"From recent intelligence we know that the Iraqi regime intends to declare and destroy only a portion of its banned al-Samoud inventory," he told the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"It has in fact ordered the continued production of the missiles that you see being destroyed... It has also begun to hide machinery it can use to convert other kinds of engines to power al-Samouds," Powell said.

I mean, really isn't it obvious that Saddam is doing his best?

Maybe we should move the primaries all the to the December after the general election, and just get it over with: District Insists On Early Primary:
A unanimous D.C. Council voted yesterday to move next year's presidential primary to Jan. 13 -- ahead of every state...
Hey look: PoliBlog is an "insignificant microbe", i.e., ranked 834 out of 1162 on the TTLB Blogosphere Ecosystem. On the one hand, I have higher aspirations than that, on the other, the Blog has only been around about two and half weeks. I'll take what I can get.
Line of the Day: "Shut up you minion, you (U.S.) agent, you monkey. You are addressing Iraq," he said. "You are insolent. You are a traitor to the Islamic nation," --( Izzat Ibrahim, second-in-command of Iraq's Revolutionary Command Council to the Kuwaitis at the Islamic Summit in Doha, Qatar)

(source: ABCNEWS.com

Tuesday, March 4

Indeed: " the president's critics, showing an amazing tolerance for cognitive dissonance, fault him simultaneously for acting as though America can be the world's constable - and for allowing Iraq to divert him from the task of solving the North Korean crisis."--George Will
Thomas P.M. Barnett of the US Naval War College, has a very interesting piece in this month's Esquire (a nod to LGFs for the link). On the one hand, Barnett's division of the world into the "Core" and "Gap" makes some sense (although it isn’t wholly unique), his argument about globalization and connectedness is worthy of consideration, and not unlike things Thomas Friedman often argues.

I also agree that the “gap” countries are more likely to be sources of conflict, but I think that he underplays one major issue, and that is that the amount of threat that a given country represents is more an issue of radical Islam, than it is of lack of connectedness. Haiti and Colombia, for example, top his list of trouble spots. I would argue that while Colombia in particular is going to loom larger and larger in US foreign policy, it is not a direct threat to the US the way radicalized Muslim terrorists are. Indeed, radical Saudi Arabians are more of a threat to the US than are members of the FARC. For one thing, the FARC (or their lesser known guerrilla compatriots, the ELN) doesn’t have the capacity to overrtake the Colombian state. The conflict in Colombia is a stalemate: the guerrilla can’t take the state, and the state can’t defeat the guerrillas. Further, the irony with the Colombian situation is that it is the very War on Drugs that we wage that inflates the price of cocaine, that makes fighting profitable. Sans drug money, the FARC whithers.

At any rate, the Barnett piece is worth a read.

Hmm, if Reuters is publishing optimistic-sounding stories, maybe the US will get the new resolution after all...
Interesting:
France has all but ruled out using its veto in the U.N. Security Council to block a U.S.-backed resolution paving the way for war on Iraq , a weekly newspaper reported in its Wednesday edition.
More info on the Iraqi-Abu Sayyaf link from WaTi. This goes along with info I blogged here.
What a waste of resources (from NRO):
"Including federal, state and local officials, our estimate is about 1,200 were involved, just on that day," Drug Enforcement Agency spokesman Will Glaspy says by phone. Among them, "easily hundreds" of U.S. agents were deployed "about 103 U.S. Marshals alone," Justice spokesman Drew Wade adds. "It was just exhaustive." The Feds responsible include prosecutors in eleven U.S. attorneys' offices from southern California to western Pennsylvania. Rather than guard America's docks and porous borders from the next Mohamed Atta, Customs and Immigration and Naturalization Service personnel joined the anti-pipe posse.

I have never used drugs (I honestly don't even know what marijuana smoke smells like) and pray that none of my boys will ever indulge, but as one who studies Colombia and, by extension, the drug problem, I have to say that this represents an enormous waste of resources. We live in a world of finite resources, and choices have to be made. The War on Drugs in general is not delivering, and needs to be seriously evaluated--we aren't getting what we are paying for.

(Thanks to OTB for the link)

For some reason, I find this to be amusing.
This is so confusing:
A decade ago, after her election to the U.S. Senate, Carol Moseley Braun introduced a hyphen to her name after 15 years in politics.

Now, it's gone.

[...]

By way of formal introduction, she will now be Ms. Braun, not Ms. Moseley-Braun.

An interesting take on peace protestors from a former demonstrator of the Vietnam Era. (thanks to joyfulchristian for the link.
James K. Glassman has an interesting column atTechCentralStation He makes several key obersvations, including:
But even Greenpeace's own position paper on Exxon Mobil, "The Tiger in the Tanks," admits there are subtleties involved: "Only time will tell which oil company will benefit most from a war with Iraq…. U.S. oil companies are only likely to benefit if Bush secures a regime change in Iraq, whereas a peaceful resolution is likely to leave French, Russian and Chinese oil companies as the main winners."

Of course, another way to put this is that the French, Russian and Chinese oil companies stand to benefit if a brutal dictator who has already invaded two of his neighbors, killed dissenters, used chemical weapons, and failed to abide by 16 U.N. resolutions remains in power.

and, indeed:

If Greenpeace truly places the environment over ideology, why does it coddle the worst polluter the world has ever seen? I am speaking, of course, of Saddam Hussein, who, faced with defeat in 1991, set fire to 613 oil wells in Kuwait, the country he invaded. An extensive study by Geneva-based Green Cross International found that 60 million barrels of oil were released in the desert, forming 246 oil lakes, covering a surface of 49 square kilometers. "The smoke and soot contaminated 953 square kilometers of desert" and soiled 800 miles of coastline. "The amount of oil released was…twice as large as the previous world record oil spill" - and 20 times as large as the Valdez spill in Alaska.

One would think that Greenpeace would be leading the first armored column into Baghdad to bring history's number-one eco-criminal to justice.

A new blog by the editorial cartoonists Cox & Forkum
An amusing web site dedidated to Dennis Kucinich (also thanks to a post at The Agitator)
One would think, that given the way their financial markets reacted, that Turkey will have another vote and this time the results will be different. The government only needs three votes.
I have to admit this is pretty funny (via The Agitator)

Monday, March 3

As a Political Science Professor, I wouldn't recommend this:
Political science, religious studies, sociology and global studies classes in colleges and universities might consider participating in the human shield as a course project for those who are willing. Graduate students could write theses out of the experience. Students the world over could organize the travel and recruiting, themselves. There could be local chapters, like Amnesty International. Or it could be organized using the framework of the Peace Corps. It begins here, but continues beyond today and this month, and America and Iraq. This is the movement that Mahatma Gandhi began and that we want to manifest on a level that has never before been possible - or at least that has never before been tried.

You have got to be kidding me:

As long as enough people will go that it publicly shames aggressors out of killing thousands who travel to a place to create positive, nonviolent solutions, there's not a lot more danger than one faces on an average trip to the average country at any given time. I won't say it's a trip to Paris, but the very scale of this movement is, itself, a very strong protective factor.
Nothing like European class.
Too bad--I actually was curious to see how this might've turned out: ABC's Donaldson Won't Be Defecting to MSNBC
Hmm, I don't think that these will end up in my children's library.
Hmm... Does this mean that Cheney is his interogator? Let's hope:
The U.S. official told Reuters in Washington that Mohammed had been taken out of Pakistan to an undisclosed location for interrogation after his capture with two other al Qaeda suspects.
Sabbath Punditry Moment of the Week

For those who missed it, an amusing snippet from the Fox News Sunday Panel:

HUME: You got to love Hans Blix. You know, if I die I'd like to come back as Hans Blix's son. He'd never be in any trouble...

(LAUGHTER)

... any effort would be good enough, there would always be progress, he would always be saying I'll be doing better next time, the grades would never be bad enough to get you in any real trouble. It would be great.

I think this falls into the category of a face only a mother could love.
North Korea is a happy, happy place.
Under threat of severe penalties, the vast majority of North Korea's 22 million people are not allowed any contact with the outside world — letters, telephone calls, travel, radio or television programs.

And this is a great idea. Nothing like helping out their brethen to the North:

South Korea's state-owned Korean Broadcasting Service increasingly airs programs intended not to provoke the North and to promote peaceful coexistence on the peninsula.

I am not an expert on Asia, but it strikes me that the South is making a grave error in their current dealings with the North. I understand being tired of the tension and constant threat of potential conflict, but playing nice only helps the Dictator.

Oh, and by the way: 10 down, 110 go:
Baghdad began on Saturday destroying some 120 missiles, meeting a key U.N. deadline. A total of 10 missiles, whose range Blix says exceeds the 150-km (93-mile) limit allowed by U.N. resolutions, have been scrapped so far.
Ya know, it is funny how Iraq starts to cooperate (sorta) right around the time that Blix is due to make a report. Is it just me, or shouldn't they have disclosed information on VX and anthrax back in December, if such information existed?

Sunday, March 2

Wow. I am shocked to learn that Saddam would exploit these peace-loving visitors:
[M]any of the British peace activists who travelled to Iraq to present themselves as "human shields'' against a military attack are reported to be on their way back home even before a single shot has been fired.

The reason is said to be differences with their Iraqi hosts over where they should be deployed. While the volunteers wanted to be with the civilians to help them in the event of a war, the Iraqis apparently insisted that they would serve as more effective symbols of resistance if they were to be stationed at strategic sites like power stations and oil refineries. For many, this was simply too scary and, preferring safety to valour, they decided to return home.

And, really:

Sixty-eight-year-old Godfrey Meynell, a former sheriff from Derbyshire, broke out in cold sweat when he discovered that the power plant, he had been asked to guard, looked like a potential "prime target'' for enemy fire. "I'm ashamed to be leaving you at this time of need but I am going out of pure, cold fear,''
My thanks to Random Nuclear Strikes for Blogrolling PoliBlog.
Nothing like thoughtful argumentation to make a point.
This is hylarious (although some of the pictures are kinda frightening).

Saturday, March 1

Speaking of second (and third, fourth, fifth, etc.) chances (as I discussed here and here), here's a nice list of UN resolutions from Paxety's Pages (found via Random Nuclear Strikes).
As usual, Friedman's column from this Sunday's NYT is worth a read. I agree with him vis-a-vis the President's vision, and I can concede that perhaps there were some diplomatic avenues not fully exploited, but I disagree on the fundamental idea that the current opposition is the result of the President's behavior in early 2001.

First off, however, I think that this is plain incorrect:

if taking out Saddam and rebuilding Iraq had been my goal from the minute I took office (as it was for the Bush team),

I believe that some members of the team (Wolfowitz, for sure, plus Cheney and Rumsfeld) wanted oust Saddam from the beginning, but I really don't think it became the President's goal until well after 911, as I think that changed his foreign policy agenda and his view of his presidency. Indeed, had Iraq truly been the main foreign policy goal, I think that Bush would have done a number of things differently from the beginning, perhaps along the lines that Friedman suggests.

I do think that Friedman is 100% right here:

A U.S. invasion to disarm Iraq, oust Saddam Hussein and rebuild a decent Iraqi state would be the mother of all presidential gambles. Anyone who thinks President Bush is doing this for political reasons is nuts. You could do this only if you really believed in it, because Mr. Bush is betting his whole presidency on this war of choice.

I concur with his general points about bridge-building, although I am not sure that even had Bush done all Friedman suggests that we would be in a better position vis-a-vis that French, Germans and Russians. Indeed, the only part of his argument that directly impacted any of these actors was the ABM treaty and the Russians. I have a hard time believing that if Bush had only supported Kyoto that the French and Germans would be on board right now. I think there are far deeper issues Bush's first year foreign policy at work here.

Also, a nit-picky point on something he has done before, and does right here:

And don't believe the polls. I've been to nearly 20 states recently, and I've found that 95 percent of the country wants to see Iraq dealt with without a war.

I have problems with polls myself, but this is just an empirically specious and methodologically ridiculous means of argumentation.

He is right about the Israelis and the settlement issue, btw.

Thanks to Boycott Hollywood for the link to PoliBlog. An interesting site will the latest rants from the denizens of the Left Coast. Enjoy!
Turkey Surprise: U.S. Seeks 'Clarification' of Turk Vote on Troops

Here's the interesting part:

The vote, carried out behind closed doors, ended with 264 votes for and 251 votes against with 19 abstentions -- an apparent slim victory for the government.

But the opposition Republican People's Party challenged the result on the grounds the government had not won the 267 votes needed to represent a majority of the 534 lawmakers present in the assembly.

Walter Williams has a pretty good column on an affirmative action bake sale.

Here's a news story (scroll down) about the event, and a similar sale at UC Be